Former Liberal MP warns of tough times ahead with U.S. over NATO spending target

Retired Lt.-Gen. Andrew Leslie said Canada will soon face a rough ride from the U.S. for failing to meet its defence spending targets after the dramatic political comeback of president-elect Donald Trump.

Leslie, a former member of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal caucus, told the House of Commons defence committee on Thursday that he sees "no sense of urgency" from the government to put more resources into the Canadian Armed Forces and meet its NATO defence spending commitments.

But senior leadership in Washington will be "fairly transactional" and "looking for quick results," Leslie said during an appearance to discuss Canada's updated defence policy.

"It’s going to get surprisingly tough for us over the next couple of months as we get asked a lot of really hard questions in the context of North American defence, NATO contributions and North American free trade — all of which are linked," he said.

Ottawa will soon have to focus on a scheduled review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement in 2026, not to mention an unpredictable incoming U.S. president who spent his election campaign threatening across-the-board tariffs on imports and thundering about NATO members not paying their fair share.

Just a little more than 24 hours after Trump's victory was declared, Trudeau revived a key cabinet committee on Canada-U.S. relations, tapping Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland as chair.

Freeland led negotiations for the new North American free trade agreement that was signed during Trump's first term in office.

The committee, which will meet for the first time Friday, will also include Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne, Trade Minister Mary Ng and Defence Minister Bill Blair.

Trade, national security, immigration and defence will all be high on its agenda.

Last February, Trump said he would not defend a NATO member that is failing to spend the agreed-upon amount on defence, suggesting he would encourage Russia to do "whatever the hell they want" to those countries.

NATO's 32 member nations agreed to each spend the equivalent of at least two per cent of their GDP on defence, but Canada is among the nine members that aren't going to do that this year.

NATO figures project that Canada will spend the equivalent 1.37 per cent of its GDP on defence this year, placing it at the back of the pack. National Defence projects the figure to tick upward over the coming years, rising to 1.76 per cent by 2030.

Canada's defence spending has become a growing sore point south of the border.

Facing sharp criticism from members of Congress in Washington this past summer, Trudeau pledged at the NATO summit that Canada will meet the alliance's target by 2032.

Ottawa has said it will meet the target once it purchases a new fleet of up to 12 new submarines, which have not yet been costed. But Leslie said Canada should dramatically accelerate its spending and procurement timelines.

"We’re not going to meet it until 2032, which is an arbitrary number chosen by the prime minister to get him out of a really tight jam in his visit down to Washington," Leslie said. "There’s nothing in the fiscal framework which indicates the government of Canada is serious about meeting that two per cent."

Former U.S. ambassador to Canada Kelly Craft said in the waning days of the election that Canada would be smart to speed up that timeline in the event of a Trump victory.

Blair downplayed such concerns after Trump’s win, and defended that Canada now has a plan to reach the target.

"We want to get to two per cent, too," he said on Wednesday after a caucus meeting in West Block. "We’ve made a commitment to do that. We’ve got a plan, and we’re working hard towards it."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.