TORONTO -- After the Progressive Conservatives unseated the incumbent Liberals in a surprise, majority win in Nova Scotia on Tuesday night, Nanos Research’s Nik Nanos says the result could be an indication that parties will have to run on more than their pandemic record in the federal election.

Premier-designate Tim Houston led the Progressive Conservatives to a majority win over Iain Rankin’s Liberals after a campaign focused primarily on fixing the province’s troubled health-care system.

“What happened in Nova Scotia was that the Conservatives won not on the pandemic, but on health care,” Nanos said on the latest episode of Trend Line. “[They] promised more doctors, more investment in health care and it looks like the Liberals were running on their record for the pandemic.”

Nanos said Nova Scotian voters showed they were looking for a party focused on the future and not the past – a possible harbinger for the upcoming federal election.

“The pandemic is not enough. It’s good, but it's not enough to win any election at this particular point in time,” he said.

While it appeared to be enough earlier on in the pandemic – the incumbent leaders in British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick and the Yukon all remained in power during their provincial elections – Nanos said that trend might be coming to an end.

“The streak is dead,” he said. “No incumbent governments in Canada at the provincial level for all of the elections have either been rewarded with the same or even a stronger mandate. Nova Scotia has broken that streak with the win of the conservatives.”

Although it’s early days still, Nanos said it will be interesting to see whether the federal Liberals will suffer a similar fate to the Nova Scotian Liberals and lose their incumbency.

It’s already clear that health care is top of mind during the start of the federal election campaign with the debate around mandatory COVID-19 vaccinations becoming an early wedge issue among the main parties.

Nanos said the Liberals have been trying to portray Erin O’Toole and the Conservatives as being against vaccines, when, in fact, the Tory leader has received his shots and supports them. However, O’Toole has been pushing for rapid testing for COVID-19 for federal workers and travellers instead of mandatory vaccinations for all.

“The Liberals are still trying to keep the vaccination as an issue to put the Conservatives on the defensive,” he said.

DEFINING LEADERSHIP

Health care wasn’t the only issue at the forefront of the federal election campaign this week. The Taliban’s dramatic takeover of Afghanistan and Canada’s evacuation of its citizens and those Afghans who helped the Canadian military during their time there was also in the spotlight.

Nanos said an issue like this could define a party leader’s image during an election, citing Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and former Conservative Leader Stephen Harper’s responses to the Syrian refugee crisis in 2015. He said Trudeau – who he described as an “upstart” at the time – distinguished himself from Harper with his compassionate response to the tragedy while his opponent focused on security and controlling immigration into Canada.

“These types of issues, although they're not deciding issues in a campaign because foreign policy is rarely a deciding issue in the campaign, can help define the party leaders in terms of how they respond,” he said.

The election edition of Trend Line publishes in the morning every Monday, Wednesday and Friday during the campaign.