Three points separate major parties: Nanos tracking
Published Friday, September 25, 2015 6:30AM EDT
Last Updated Friday, September 25, 2015 11:38AM EDT
Only three percentage points separate the three main federal parties in the election race, according to the latest Nanos National Nightly Tracking for CTV and the Globe and Mail.
Voters were asked which federal parties they would consider voting for locally as a first and second choice, if the election were held today.
The Liberal Party was the first choice of 32.3 per cent of respondents, followed by the NDP at 31.1 per cent, and the Conservatives at 28.9 per cent. The poll found 4.2 per cent of respondents would consider the Green Party as their first choice, and 10 per cent of Quebecers would consider voting for the Bloc Quebecois as their first choice.
Voters were also asked a series of questions about whether they would consider or not consider voting for each of the federal parties, to determine each party’s proportion of accessible voters.
The latest results show:
- The Liberals with 50.9 per cent support
- The NDP with 49.5 per cent support
- The Conservatives with 38.6 per cent support
Among the other federal parties, 24.7 per cent of respondents said they would consider voting for the Green Party, and 24.6 per cent of those polled in Quebec said they would consider voting for the Bloc Quebecois.
The margin of error for 1,071 decided voters is ±3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Harper, Trudeau tied on preferred PM measure
According to the latest results from a survey conducted by Nanos Research for CTV and the Globe and Mail, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau are in a dead heat on the preferred prime minister measure.
The nightly tracking showed:
- 29.2 per cent of respondents chose Harper when asked who they would prefer as prime minister
- 29.2 per cent preferred Trudeau
- 25.6 per cent preferred NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair
Trudeau's support has been trending upward recently. He was at 25.4 per cent support a week ago, and 22.2 per cent support a month ago.
Meanwhile, 4.9 per cent preferred Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, 1.5 per cent preferred Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe and 9.7 per cent said they were unsure.
Survey respondents were asked "Of the current federal political party leaders, could you please rank your top two current local preferences for Prime Minister?"
Of those who chose Harper as their preferred prime minister, 37 per cent said they had no second choice.
Among those who chose Trudeau first, 54 per cent preferred Mulcair second. Of those who opted for Mulcair as their preferred prime minister, 55 per cent said Trudeau would be their second option.
The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprising 1,200 interviews. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample composed of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Full poll at Nanos Research
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