Nanos tracking: Three-way national race very close
The Nanos poll numbers for Sept 18.
Published Friday, September 18, 2015 6:58AM EDT
Last Updated Friday, September 18, 2015 2:23PM EDT
For the eighth day in a row, the race between the three main federal parties remains very close.
According to the latest nightly tracking polling by Nanos Research for CTV and The Globe and Mail:
- the Conservatives at 29.1 per cent
- the Liberals have 31.0 per cent
- the NDP has 31.3 per cent support
The Greens have 5.8 per cent support nationally, while the Bloc has 2.3 per cent support (Quebec only).
The New Democrats enjoy a comfortable lead in Quebec, while the Liberals are ahead in Atlantic Canada and have the advantage in Ontario.
The Conservatives remain quite strong in the Prairies and in British Columbia it is a three-way race between the NDP, the Conservatives and the Liberals.
Voters were asked: "If a federal election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences?"
For this latest poll, the margin of error on 1,074 decided voters is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Harper and Mulcair top choices for prime minister
The latest nightly tracking also suggests that Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and NDP Leader Tom Mulcair are the two most preferred choices for prime minister, slightly ahead of Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.
Voters were asked: “Of the current federal political party leaders, please rank your top two current local preferences for prime minister?
- 30.1 per cent chose Harper
- 28.6 per cent selected Mulcair
- 25.4 per cent chose Trudeau
Another 5.8 per cent chose Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, while Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe was chosen by 1.3 per cent (Quebec only). Another 8.8 per cent of voters were unsure.
Nanos Party Power Index
In the Nanos Party Power Index, the NDP scored 54.0 out a possible 100 points, followed by the Liberals who scored 52.2 points, the Conservatives 48.9 points, the Greens 30.2 points, and the BQ 26.3 points (Quebec only).
The Index is a composite score based on a series of measures, including vote preferences and the impressions of the leaders. On the Index, 0 means a party has no brand strength while 100 means it has maximum brand strength.
A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign, using live agents.
The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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