With the federal election campaign now in its final days, the Liberals are now six points ahead, according to the latest nightly tracking conducted by Nanos Research for CTV News and The Globe and Mail.

The latest nightly tracking has:

  • the Liberals with 36.5 per cent support
  • the Conservatives at 30.6 per cent
  • the NDP at 23.5 per cent nationally
  • the Greens at 4.7 per cent
  • the Bloc Quebecois at 4.3 per cent

Nanos tracking: Liberals lead by 6 points

The nightly tracking also shows the Liberals continue to have the highest level of accessible voters, meaning the proportion of Canadians who would consider voting for the party.

Asked a series of independent questions as to whether they would consider voting for another party, 54.5 per cent of respondents said they would consider voting for the Liberals; 39.7 per cent would consider the NDP; 37.9 per cent would consider the Conservatives, 22.7 per cent would consider the Greens and 33.1 per cent would consider the Bloc (Quebec only).

Liberals bump holding

Pollster Nik Nanos says it seems that the gains in support the Liberals made last week are continuing to hold.

“(Liberal support) grew dramatically last weekend, Thanksgiving weekend,” he told CTV News Channel. “(The numbers) have been able to stabilize and firm up into an advantage for the Liberals coming into this week.”

According to the nightly tracking, the Liberals have also been able to trend up in Quebec over the last couple of nights.

“When you look at the CTV Nanos trend line, the Liberals are technically ahead of the NDP, even though it’s within the margin of error,” he said. “And we haven’t seen anyone ahead of the NDP (in Quebec) in Nanos tracking since the last election.”

These recent shifts in Quebec are not good for the New Democrats, Nanos said, because the party has most of its seats in that province and needs to do well there again. But Nanos says the numbers show that the NDP’s support has slid in Quebec over this campaign.

“At one point, they had support of upwards of 50 per cent of Quebecers and now it’s slid down to about 30 per cent,” he said.

With a 20-point drop in support in Quebec over the campaign, the party will be trying to fight against a tough trend line in order to “get back in the game,” Nanos said.

Over in British Columbia, Nanos says it’s been a “dogfight” between the Conservatives and the Liberals in polling. The NDP have been close behind too, while the Green Party has incrementally trended up over the campaign. So it remains to be seen how that province turns out on election night.

“The B.C.’ers will keep us up late at night on election night,” Nanos said with a laugh, “because they’re going to determine the shape of the mandate for the next government.”

Poll methodology

A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample composed of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped.

The margin of error for 1,106 decided voters is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Full poll at Nanos Research

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