Nanos tracking: Liberals have 7-point lead in campaign's closing week
Published Wednesday, October 14, 2015 7:11AM EDT
The latest tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail suggests the Liberals have a seven-point lead in the closing week of the federal election campaign.
Numbers released on Oct. 14 show:
- The Liberals at 36.1 per cent support nationally
- The Conservatives at 29.2 per cent support nationally
- The NDP at 24.5 per cent support nationally
- The Green Party at 4.3 per cent support nationally
Respondents were asked: "If a federal election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences?"
Nightly tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail, released Oct. 14. (Nanos Research)
If Canadians were voting today, the most recent results suggest they would elect a Liberal minority government, pollster Nik Nanos told CTV News Channel on Wednesday.
"With a seven-point advantage, the Liberals are in very good shape," he said. "However, there's five days left and a lot could happen."
With the campaign in its final stretch, Nanos said it will be a challenge for Conservative Leader Stephen Harper to close the gap between his party and the Liberals.
"Realistically, last week was the most important week for the ad campaign because we know that people make their decision over the holiday weekend," he said. "The numbers decidedly moved in favour of the Liberals last Friday, Saturday, and Sunday."
The late shift towards Liberal support means that Harper needs more than a well-run campaign to take the lead, Nanos said.
"He needs some massive, major misstep from either the Liberal campaign or (Liberal Leader) Justin Trudeau to try and turn the current trend."
Nanos said the NDP also faces an uphill battle in the coming five days.
After a strong start to the campaign, the party has fallen to third place in the most recent Nanos tracking, almost 12 percentage points behind the Liberals.
"The story for the NDP has been that there was a lot of good will on the front end of the campaign, but as it looked like the Liberals were the only party to challenge the Conservatives, people strategically voted," Nanos said.
"So it's not a repudiation on Thomas Mulcair and the NDP, just people … seeing the Liberals as the vehicle for change."
A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample composed of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error 1,096 decided voters is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada and Ontario, while the Conservatives have the lead in the Prairie provinces.
According to Nanos, the Liberals' Ontario advantage could significantly impact the election results.
"We call it a killer province in terms of the outcome of the election," Nanos said on Wednesday. "Ontario made Stephen Harper a majority government last time, and right now the Liberals have a 12-point advantage."
Meanwhile, in Quebec, the latest numbers show a tight race between the NDP and Liberals.
Nanos said the Quebec tie is the result of a "massive drop" in support for the NDP in the province.
Earlier in the campaign, the NDP was polling at approximately 50 per cent support in Quebec, Nanos said, but more recently the party's fallen to 32.6 per cent, while the Liberals are at 30.5 per cent in the province.
British Columbia is also locked in a tie, with the Conservatives and Liberals both hovering around 30 per cent.
But, Nanos said, the "party to watch" in British Columbia is the fourth-place Greens, who are currently at 13.9 per cent support in the province.
"They've been doing better in the last three or four days," he said. "Perhaps Elizabeth May might have a little company, a B.C. seat-mate."
The most recent regional numbers:
- Atlantic Canada - Liberals (52.7 per cent), NDP (21.9 per cent), Conservatives (21.0 per cent), Greens (4.4 per cent), based on 112 decided individuals. A sample of 112 respondents is accurate ±9.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
- Quebec – NDP (32.6 per cent), Liberals (30.5 per cent), Bloc Quebecois (21.4 per cent), Conservatives (14.0 per cent), Greens (1.1 per cent), based on 267 decided individuals. A sample of 267 respondents is accurate ±6.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
- Ontario – Liberals (45.2 per cent), Conservatives (32.7 per cent), NDP (17.6 per cent), Greens (3.6 per cent), based on 327 decided individuals. A sample of 327 respondents is accurate ±5.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
- Prairies – Conservatives (45.8 per cent), NDP (26.0 per cent), Liberals (25.8 per cent), Greens (1.7 per cent), based on 220 decided individuals. A sample of 220 respondents is ±6.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
- British Columbia – Conservatives (30.5 per cent), Liberals (29.9 per cent), NDP (24.7 per cent), Greens (13.9 per cent), based on 170 decided individuals. A sample of 170 respondents is accurate ±7.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Full poll at Nanos Research
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