Nanos poll: Harper slightly ahead for preferred PM
NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Stephen Harper.
Published Saturday, September 19, 2015 11:18AM EDT
Last Updated Saturday, September 19, 2015 2:37PM EDT
The three main federal parties remain in a tight race, according to the latest nightly tracking poll by Nanos Research for CTV and The Globe and Mail.
The latest numbers, according to the poll, are as follows:
- the Conservatives at 30.4 per cent
- the NDP has 28.9 per cent support
- the Liberals have 30.8 per cent
The Greens have 6.0 per cent support nationally, while the Bloc has 3.0 per cent support (Quebec only).
Voters were asked: "If a federal election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences?"
For this latest poll, the margin of error on 1,074 decided voters is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
- In Atlantic Canada and Ontario, the Liberals are leading with 50.7 per cent and 41.1 per cent respectively.
- In Quebec, the NDP are leading with 47.7 per cent.
- In the Prairie provinces, the Conservatives are leading with 54.0 per cent. The Tories are also leading in British Columbia with 31.4 per cent.
- Regional margins of error: British Columbia: 7.9 per cent, Prairies: 6.8 per cent, Ontario: 5.5 per cent, Quebec: 6.1 per cent, Atlantic: 9.5 per cent.
When asked a series of independent questions as to whether they would consider or not consider voting for each of the federal parties, the poll found the Liberals had the highest number of accessible voters: 48.1 per cent said they would consider voting Liberal, while 46.4 per cent would consider voting NDP.
Just under 40 per cent (39.6%) would consider voting Conservative, while 25.6 per cent would consider voting Green. In Quebec, 26.2 per cent of Quebecers would consider voting for the Bloc Quebecois.
When asked to rank their second choice:
- Of those who ranked the Liberals first, 53 per cent picked the NDP second, while 17 per cent would pick the Conservatives as their second choice. Fifteen per cent said they have no second choice.
- Of those who chose the NDP as their top pick, 48 per cent said the Liberals would be their second choice, while 18 per cent said they have no second choice. Another 15 per cent would pick the Green Party as their second choice.
- Among those who favoured the Conservatives, 45 per cent said they have no second choice, while 32 per cent said they would pick Liberals as their second choice, and 14 per cent said they would pick the NDP as their second choice.
Harper top pick for preferred PM
The latest nightly tracking also suggests that Conservative Leader Stephen Harper is the preferred choice for prime minister, slightly ahead of NDP Leader Tom Mulcair and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.
Voters were asked: "Of the current federal political party leaders, please rank your top two current local preferences for prime minister?"
- 29.7 per cent chose Harper
- 26.3 per cent chose Mulcair
- 25.5 per cent chose Trudeau
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May and Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe rounded out the top five, polling at 6 per cent (nationwide) and 1.9 per cent (Quebec only) respectively.
Another 10.6 per cent of voters were undecided.
A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign, using live agents.
The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Full poll at Nanos Research
Follow @niknanos on Twitter