Election 2015: Ontario voters push Conservatives to slight lead in Nanos polling
Conservative Leader Stephen Harper makes a campaign stop in Fredericton, N.B. on Monday, Aug. 17, 2015. (Sean Kilpatrick / THE CANADIAN PRESS)
Josh Dehaas, CTVNews.ca
Published Tuesday, August 18, 2015 6:00AM EDT
Last Updated Tuesday, August 18, 2015 9:29AM EDT
The federal election continues to be close but an upward tick in Ontario appears to have pushed the Conservatives into a slight lead.
Stephen Harper’s party has 32 per cent support nationally while Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Tom Mulcair’s NDP are tied at 29 per cent, according to the latest Nanos Research weekly ballot tracking.
That puts the Conservatives and Liberals up about one percentage point each over the past four weeks, while the NDP is down about two per cent.
The Conservatives have been up four weeks in a row in Ontario, climbing from 35 per cent support in the week that ended July 17 to 42 per cent in the week that ended Friday. Over that same period, the NDP has declined in Ontario from 30 per cent support to 23 per cent, while the Liberals have been stuck at around 30 per cent.
The opposite trend is apparent in Atlantic Canada, where the Conservatives have fallen from ¬¬25 per cent to 16 per cent support over four weeks as the NDP grew from 25 per cent to 38 per cent.
The Liberals remain in the lead in Atlantic Canada with 45 per cent support.
The Conservatives are also strong in the Prairies, with 53 per cent compared to 20 per cent for the NDP and 19 per cent for the Liberals.
The NDP is still on top in British Columbia, at 39 per cent support, compared to 28 per cent for the Liberals and 26 per cent for the Conservatives.
The NDP continues to lead in Quebec, with 35 per cent, compared to 30 per cent for the Liberals, 17 per cent for the Bloc Quebecois and 12 per cent for the Conservatives.
The Green party is polling at five per cent nationally, with support ranging from a low of one per cent in Atlantic Canada to seven per cent in the Prairies and B.C.
The regional numbers have sample sizes ranging from 80 respondents in Atlantic Canada to 257 in Ontario, which means they have a wider margin of error than the survey overall.
A random telephone survey of 1,000 respondents is considered accurate plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The weekly ballot tracking is determined using random landline and cellphone interviews with 1,000 adult Canadians, and may be weighted by age and gender. The current report is based on a four-week rolling average up to and including Aug. 14, 2015.