'Dream scenario' for Poilievre as Conservatives open up 20-point lead with NDP, Liberals tied

The latest Nanos Research numbers show Pierre Poilievre and the federal Conservative Party have not only opened up a big lead in ballot support — but Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have fallen into a statistical tie with the NDP.

The latest Nanos ballot tracking puts the Conservative Party at 41.6 per cent, more than 20 points ahead of the Liberal Party, which fell to 21.5 per cent – down four points in four weeks.

The NDP have actually inched ahead of the Liberals at 21.6 per cent.

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“This is a dream scenario for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives,” said Nanos Research founder Nik Nanos on the latest episode of CTV News Trend Line.

“He's got a 20-point advantage and the progressives are perfectly split.”

It’s the first time since September 2015, before Trudeau became prime minister, that the Liberals have had less ballot support than the NDP, though the 0.1 per cent deficit is still within the poll’s margin of error.

Nanos ballot support 4-week change (Nanos Research

Nanos said it’s good news for the New Democrats — and “absolutely terrible” for the Liberals.

“They've got to stop hemorrhaging support, because this could be a potential political death spiral for the Liberals if this trend continues,” Nanos said. “They've got to try to figure out what they're going to do to try to stay afloat and be competitive right now.”

With a 20-point gap, Nanos said right now, it’s really a battle for second place.

“Liberals aren't really competing against the Conservatives, actually,” he said. “Right now, they're fighting for their lives against Jagmeet Singh and the New Democrats.”

Seat projections: Liberals fading

According to Nanos seat projections – which calculates how popular support would translate into winning ridings if an election were to be held today -- Liberal red is also fading from the map.

In the Toronto and Hamilton, Ont., area an almost clean-sweep of Liberal seats in 2021 has turned into a mix of Conservative and undecided seats.

• Access the latest Nanos polls and national survey results here

In the images below, on the left are the results from the 2021 federal election, with the right-hand side showing changes based on current modelling. Ridings shown in black are considered too close to call.

Nanos seat projections showing Golden Horseshoe region (Nanos Research)

“The Conservatives [are] making significant gains in Toronto, and this speaks to what traditionally has been a Liberal fortress basically unwinding completely,” Nanos said.

In the Ottawa area as well, the Liberals have lost ground.

“There are ridings like Ottawa Centre that basically now are a statistical tossup between the New Democrats and the Liberals,” Nanos said. “But you also see basically the Conservatives picking up in suburban Ottawa.”

Nanos seat projections showing national capital region (Nanos Research)

Nanos paints the same picture in the Vancouver area, with only one seat currently leaning Liberal.

Nanos seat projections showing Vancouver area ridings (Nanos Research)

“That battleground is favouring the Conservatives with the Conservatives picking up a number of ridings in the Vancouver area,” Nanos said.

“The NDP might be interesting to watch in Vancouver because if Liberal support drops, those [voters] can strategically vote NDP to try to block the Conservatives.”

And in the Atlantic region, only one seat is currently favouring the Liberals.

Nanos seat projections showing the Atlantic region (Nanos Research)

“There's still that one Liberal riding in northern New Brunswick that's holding on,” Nanos said.

Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Methodology

1,045 random interviews recruited from an RDD land- and cell-line sample of Canadians aged 18 years and over, ending September 27, 2024. The data is based on a four-week rolling average where each week the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 is added. A random survey of 1,045 Canadians is accurate 3.0 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences?