Don Martin's sorry-to-be-cynical prediction on the federal budget
Hanging out on Vancouver Island is mercifully as far away from Ottawa as a Canadian can get.
It’s the perfect place for a reality check during a budget week when the national capital region is frenzy-filled with breathless speculation, strategic pre-budget leaks and former insider prognostications that are wrong 50 per cent of the time.
Here, amid the sprouting of daffodils under blossom-filled trees, the budget isn’t merely forgotten upon release, it barely registers in the first place.
Heck, I was cruising on a friend’s boat just offshore from actor Pamela Anderson’s massive how’d-she-ever-get-that-approved dock in Ladysmith on Tuesday when it dawned on me the budget was already released and in full analytical swing, thus forcing a delay in writing this column until today.
That gave me a chance to read the day-after reviews on Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s latest shot at a legacy for her eventual Liberal leadership bid, delivered in a mercifully short speech to a chorus of nodding heads from Liberal potted plants in the background.
And what she got was a judgment jumble of mild praise, sharp derision and plenty of “meh” from the pundits on her 270-page fiscal doorstopper.
PRODUCTIVITY KILLER, CLIMATE GAME-CHANGER
Her budget is being panned as a productivity killer, praised as a climate game-changer, condemned as a fiscally reckless retreat from prudence and given a thumbs-up for deficit-taming spending cuts and a government services repair job.
But it’s hard to pin down exactly what it is because the budget vision, if any, is wrapped inside moves to re-introduce previously announced moves or expand already implemented programs while kicking the difficult spending-cuts stuff far beyond the expected lifetime of this Liberal government.
If the right industries buy into it, it would seem the budget could redefine Canada as a leader in a green-growth world. If they don’t, it might see our productivity and innovation levels fall further into the basement of developed economies.
MY CYNICAL PREDICTION
So here’s my sorry-to-be-cynical prediction. The only thing most Canadians will remember about the budget this time next week is how the booze tax increase was reduced to two per cent from six.
And being remembered for reducing a planned excise tax increase is a mighty sad legacy if Freeland’s resume is being polished for higher ambition.
The political bottom line to all this is that the NDP will support it, thus sparing the Trudeau government another call for help from Chinese interference to win over barely impressed voters.
It won’t fatally wound a Liberal brand built on deficit spending and social program expansions, which now stretch from daycares to the dentist.
And while it will hand the Conservatives some decent targets for legitimate angst, particularly over the deficit spending balloon, there’s not enough high-calibre ammunition for even the best Opposition gunners to bullseye the cabinet front bench.
So now starts another break from Parliament with the prime minister and his tagalongs fanning out across the country to remind Canadians how great they art and why this budget should cement their voting intentions to the Liberal spot on the ballot.
That could be the real challenge. As pollster Eric Grenier noted recently, the government’s own internal polling shows half of Canadians never heard or heeded a word about the 2022 budget after it was released and almost 60 per cent couldn’t name any specific measures in any recent budget.
By the time you read this, this eminently forgettable budget could largely be a flickering memory, disappearing into thin air and taking with it long-range spending and revenue spreadsheets that have all the lasting impact of pixie dust.
After all, here on Vancouver Island, the surf is pounding in Tofino, the spring flowers are in bloom everywhere and the hummingbirds are flocking to feeders.
With spring fever taking root, contemplating a federal budget would only dampen the mood.
That’s the bottom line.
IN DEPTH
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
'Democracy requires constant vigilance' Trudeau testifies at inquiry into foreign election interference in Canada
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau testified Wednesday before the national public inquiry into foreign interference in Canada's electoral processes, following a day of testimony from top cabinet ministers about allegations of meddling in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. Recap all the prime minister had to say.
As Poilievre sides with Smith on trans restrictions, former Conservative candidate says he's 'playing with fire'
Siding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on her proposed restrictions on transgender youth, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre confirmed Wednesday that he is against trans and non-binary minors using puberty blockers.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Young people 'tortured' if stolen vehicle operations fail, Montreal police tell MPs
One day after a Montreal police officer fired gunshots at a suspect in a stolen vehicle, senior officers were telling parliamentarians that organized crime groups are recruiting people as young as 15 in the city to steal cars so that they can be shipped overseas.
'It was joy': Trapped B.C. orca calf eats seal meat, putting rescue on hold
A rescue operation for an orca calf trapped in a remote tidal lagoon off Vancouver Island has been put on hold after it started eating seal meat thrown in the water for what is believed to be the first time.
Man sets self on fire outside New York court where Trump trial underway
A man set himself on fire on Friday outside the New York courthouse where Donald Trump's historic hush-money trial was taking place as jury selection wrapped up, but officials said he did not appear to have been targeting Trump.
Sask. father found guilty of withholding daughter to prevent her from getting COVID-19 vaccine
Michael Gordon Jackson, a Saskatchewan man accused of abducting his daughter to prevent her from getting a COVID-19 vaccine, has been found guilty for contravention of a custody order.
Mandisa, Grammy award-winning 'American Idol' alum, dead at 47
Soulful gospel artist Mandisa, a Grammy-winning singer who got her start as a contestant on 'American Idol' in 2006, has died, according to a statement on her verified social media. She was 47.
She set out to find a husband in a year. Then she matched with a guy on a dating app on the other side of the world
Scottish comedian Samantha Hannah was working on a comedy show about finding a husband when Toby Hunter came into her life. What happened next surprised them both.
B.C. judge orders shared dog custody for exes who both 'clearly love Stella'
In a first-of-its-kind ruling, a B.C. judge has awarded a former couple joint custody of their dog.
Saskatoon police to search landfill for remains of woman missing since 2020
Saskatoon police say they will begin searching the city’s landfill for the remains of Mackenzie Lee Trottier, who has been missing for more than three years.
Shivering for health: The myths and truths of ice baths explained
In a climate of social media-endorsed wellness rituals, plunging into cold water has promised to aid muscle recovery, enhance mental health and support immune system function. But the evidence of such benefits sits on thin ice, according to researchers.
Local Spotlight
UBC football star turning heads in lead up to NFL draft
At 6'8" and 350 pounds, there is nothing typical about UBC offensive lineman Giovanni Manu, who was born in Tonga and went to high school in Pitt Meadows.
Cat found at Pearson airport 3 days after going missing
Kevin the cat has been reunited with his family after enduring a harrowing three-day ordeal while lost at Toronto Pearson International Airport earlier this week.
Molly on a mission: N.S. student collecting books about women in sport for school library
Molly Knight, a grade four student in Nova Scotia, noticed her school library did not have many books on female athletes, so she started her own book drive in hopes of changing that.
Where did the gold go? Crime expert weighs in on unfolding Pearson airport heist investigation
Almost 7,000 bars of pure gold were stolen from Pearson International Airport exactly one year ago during an elaborate heist, but so far only a tiny fraction of that stolen loot has been found.
Marmot in the city: New resident of North Vancouver's Lower Lonsdale a 'rock star rodent'
When Les Robertson was walking home from the gym in North Vancouver's Lower Lonsdale neighbourhood three weeks ago, he did a double take. Standing near a burrow it had dug in a vacant lot near East 1st Street and St. Georges Avenue was a yellow-bellied marmot.
Relocated seal returns to Greater Victoria after 'astonishing' 204-kilometre trek
A moulting seal who was relocated after drawing daily crowds of onlookers in Greater Victoria has made a surprise return, after what officials described as an 'astonishing' six-day journey.
Ottawa barber shop steps away from Parliament Hill marks 100 years in business
Just steps from Parliament Hill is a barber shop that for the last 100 years has catered to everyone from prime ministers to tourists.
'It was a special game': Edmonton pinball player celebrates high score and shout out from game designer
A high score on a Foo Fighters pinball machine has Edmonton player Dave Formenti on a high.
'How much time do we have?': 'Contamination' in Prairie groundwater identified
A compound used to treat sour gas that's been linked to fertility issues in cattle has been found throughout groundwater in the Prairies, according to a new study.