Don Martin's sorry-to-be-cynical prediction on the federal budget
Hanging out on Vancouver Island is mercifully as far away from Ottawa as a Canadian can get.
It’s the perfect place for a reality check during a budget week when the national capital region is frenzy-filled with breathless speculation, strategic pre-budget leaks and former insider prognostications that are wrong 50 per cent of the time.
Here, amid the sprouting of daffodils under blossom-filled trees, the budget isn’t merely forgotten upon release, it barely registers in the first place.
Heck, I was cruising on a friend’s boat just offshore from actor Pamela Anderson’s massive how’d-she-ever-get-that-approved dock in Ladysmith on Tuesday when it dawned on me the budget was already released and in full analytical swing, thus forcing a delay in writing this column until today.
That gave me a chance to read the day-after reviews on Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s latest shot at a legacy for her eventual Liberal leadership bid, delivered in a mercifully short speech to a chorus of nodding heads from Liberal potted plants in the background.
And what she got was a judgment jumble of mild praise, sharp derision and plenty of “meh” from the pundits on her 270-page fiscal doorstopper.
PRODUCTIVITY KILLER, CLIMATE GAME-CHANGER
Her budget is being panned as a productivity killer, praised as a climate game-changer, condemned as a fiscally reckless retreat from prudence and given a thumbs-up for deficit-taming spending cuts and a government services repair job.
But it’s hard to pin down exactly what it is because the budget vision, if any, is wrapped inside moves to re-introduce previously announced moves or expand already implemented programs while kicking the difficult spending-cuts stuff far beyond the expected lifetime of this Liberal government.
If the right industries buy into it, it would seem the budget could redefine Canada as a leader in a green-growth world. If they don’t, it might see our productivity and innovation levels fall further into the basement of developed economies.
MY CYNICAL PREDICTION
So here’s my sorry-to-be-cynical prediction. The only thing most Canadians will remember about the budget this time next week is how the booze tax increase was reduced to two per cent from six.
And being remembered for reducing a planned excise tax increase is a mighty sad legacy if Freeland’s resume is being polished for higher ambition.
The political bottom line to all this is that the NDP will support it, thus sparing the Trudeau government another call for help from Chinese interference to win over barely impressed voters.
It won’t fatally wound a Liberal brand built on deficit spending and social program expansions, which now stretch from daycares to the dentist.
And while it will hand the Conservatives some decent targets for legitimate angst, particularly over the deficit spending balloon, there’s not enough high-calibre ammunition for even the best Opposition gunners to bullseye the cabinet front bench.
So now starts another break from Parliament with the prime minister and his tagalongs fanning out across the country to remind Canadians how great they art and why this budget should cement their voting intentions to the Liberal spot on the ballot.
That could be the real challenge. As pollster Eric Grenier noted recently, the government’s own internal polling shows half of Canadians never heard or heeded a word about the 2022 budget after it was released and almost 60 per cent couldn’t name any specific measures in any recent budget.
By the time you read this, this eminently forgettable budget could largely be a flickering memory, disappearing into thin air and taking with it long-range spending and revenue spreadsheets that have all the lasting impact of pixie dust.
After all, here on Vancouver Island, the surf is pounding in Tofino, the spring flowers are in bloom everywhere and the hummingbirds are flocking to feeders.
With spring fever taking root, contemplating a federal budget would only dampen the mood.
That’s the bottom line.
IN DEPTH
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
'Democracy requires constant vigilance' Trudeau testifies at inquiry into foreign election interference in Canada
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau testified Wednesday before the national public inquiry into foreign interference in Canada's electoral processes, following a day of testimony from top cabinet ministers about allegations of meddling in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. Recap all the prime minister had to say.
As Poilievre sides with Smith on trans restrictions, former Conservative candidate says he's 'playing with fire'
Siding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on her proposed restrictions on transgender youth, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre confirmed Wednesday that he is against trans and non-binary minors using puberty blockers.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Appeals court overturns Harvey Weinstein's 2020 rape conviction from landmark trial
New York’s highest court on Thursday overturned Harvey Weinstein’s 2020 rape conviction, finding the judge at the landmark #MeToo trial prejudiced the ex-movie mogul with improper rulings, including a decision to let women testify about allegations that weren’t part of the case.
BREAKING Honda to get up to $5B in govt help for EV battery, assembly plants
Honda is set to build an electric vehicle battery plant next to its Alliston, Ont., assembly plant, which it is retooling to produce fully electric vehicles, all part of a $15-billion project that is expected to include up to $5 billion in public money.
MPP Sarah Jama asked to leave Ontario legislature for wearing keffiyeh
MPP Sarah Jama was asked to leave the Legislative Assembly of Ontario by House Speaker Ted Arnott on Thursday for wearing a keffiyeh, a garment that is banned at Queen’s Park.
CTE: Researchers believe widespread brain injury may contribute to veteran suicide rate
Researchers are working to better understand if some Canadian military veterans may be suffering from Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy, also known as CTE -- a disorder previously found in the brains of professional football and hockey players after their death.
1 arrested in northern Alberta during public shelter order
Residents of John D'Or Prairie, a community on the Little Red River Cree Nation in northern Alberta, were told to take shelter Thursday morning during a police operation.
Secret $70M Lotto Max winners break their silence
During a special winner celebration near their hometown, Doug and Enid shared the story of how they discovered they were holding a Lotto Max ticket worth $70 million and how they kept this huge secret for so long.
Remains from a mother-daughter cold case were found nearly 24 years later, after a deathbed confession from the suspect
A West Virginia father is getting some sense of closure after authorities found the remains of his young daughter and her mother following a deathbed confession from the man believed to have fatally shot them nearly two decades ago.
New deep-water channel allows first ship to pass Key bridge wreckage in Baltimore
The first cargo ship passed through a newly opened deep-water channel in Baltimore on Thursday after being stuck in the harbor since the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapsed four weeks ago, halting most maritime traffic through the city's port.
First in Canada procedure performed at London, Ont. hospital
A London man has become the first person in Canada to receive a robotic assisted surgery on his spine. Dave Myeh suffered from debilitating, chronic back pain that led to sciatica in his right now and extreme pain in his lower back.
Local Spotlight
'It was instant karma': Viral video captures failed theft attempt in Nanaimo, B.C.
Mounties in Nanaimo, B.C., say two late-night revellers are lucky their allegedly drunken antics weren't reported to police after security cameras captured the men trying to steal a heavy sign from a downtown business.
Fergus, Ont. man feels nickel-and-dimed for $0.05 property tax bill
A property tax bill is perplexing a small townhouse community in Fergus, Ont.
Twins from Toronto were Canada's top two female finishers at this year's Boston Marathon
When identical twin sisters Kim and Michelle Krezonoski were invited to compete against some of the world’s most elite female runners at last week’s Boston Marathon, they were in disbelief.
Mystery surrounds giant custom Canucks jerseys worn by Lions Gate Bridge statues
The giant stone statues guarding the Lions Gate Bridge have been dressed in custom Vancouver Canucks jerseys as the NHL playoffs get underway.
'I'm committed': Oilers fan won't cut hair until Stanley Cup comes to Edmonton
A local Oilers fan is hoping to see his team cut through the postseason, so he can cut his hair.
'It's not my father's body!' Wrong man sent home after death on family vacation in Cuba
A family from Laval, Que. is looking for answers... and their father's body. He died on vacation in Cuba and authorities sent someone else's body back to Canada.
'Once is too many times': Education assistants facing rising violence in classrooms
A former educational assistant is calling attention to the rising violence in Alberta's classrooms.
What is capital gains tax? How is it going to affect the economy and the younger generations?
The federal government says its plan to increase taxes on capital gains is aimed at wealthy Canadians to achieve “tax fairness.”
UBC football star turning heads in lead up to NFL draft
At 6'8" and 350 pounds, there is nothing typical about UBC offensive lineman Giovanni Manu, who was born in Tonga and went to high school in Pitt Meadows.