As three-way races heat up in ridings, Conservatives have most secure seats: Pundits' Guide
Published Monday, September 28, 2015 6:51PM EDT
As dozens of three-way races heat up across the country, the Conservatives appear to have the most seats strongly secured, according to new information from an independent federal election statistics database.
Alice Funke of Pundits’ Guide appeared on CTV’s Power Play on Monday to break down her new data, which shows where the parties have bedrock support and potential gains.
“The battlegrounds have changed a lot in this election and I wanted to get a handle on those,” explained Funke.
According to Funke’s data, the Conservatives have the most core or strongly-leading seats across Canada, at 70, mostly in Ontario and Alberta. The NDP have 63 core or strongly-leading seats, 46 of which are in Quebec; and the Liberals have 18, with many in Atlantic Canada.
Funke also identified dozens of neck-and-neck contests across the country, most of which are in Conservatives ridings. Here’s a province-by-province breakdown of those tight races:
- Ontario: 23
- Atlantic Canada: 7
- Alberta: 5
- British Columbia: 5
- Manitoba: 2
- Northern Canada: 2
- Saskatchewan: 1
As the parties head into the final weeks of this marathon 78-day election campaign, Funke says it’s important for them to focus on holding onto their existing seats as well as breaking through some of the tight two- and three-way contests.
“For a party to do well, it has got to hold its seats and it has got to move out and win two-way fights with the other two, and get in on some of the three-way contests,” said Funke.
Monday marks exactly three weeks before Canadians head to the polls, and the last day for parties to confirm or withdraw their candidates before the Oct. 19 election day.