America votes: How a Harris or Trump win could impact Canada-U.S. trade

Donald Trump shakes hands with Kamala Harris during a presidential debate, Sept.10, 2024. (AP / Alex Brandon)

As we move closer to the U.S. election, CTVNews.ca will be examining the relationship between Canada and the U.S. in a series of features.

Canada's economy is intricately tied to the U.S., with nearly 80 per cent of all exports going to its neighbour. While Donald Trump's first presidency upended trade relations, U.S. President Joe Biden has overseen a return to relative stability. U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, however, was once a vocal critic of North American free trade pacts like the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and its predecessor, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

"No matter who is the U.S. president in 2025, Canada's economy would be affected by a trade protectionism, just to different degrees," Carleton University political scientist Aaron Ettinger told CTVNews.ca. "Either way, Canadians will need to be alert."

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With the current USMCA trade agreement up for review in 2026, the next U.S. president will have the power to press for changes or preserve the status quo. Here's how a Trump or Harris presidency could impact cross-border trade and Canada's economy:

Trade disrupted under Trump

Donald Trump's 2016 to 2020 presidency was a rollercoaster for Canada-U.S. relations. The countries' typically stable trade partnership was shaken by Trump's push to replace the NAFTA continental free trade agreement, and the imposition of hefty tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel during negotiations.

"Trump's attitude towards protectionism and tariffs goes back decades so it came as no surprise that he waged economic war with enthusiasm during his presidency," Ettinger said. "I would expect a 2025 Trump presidency to return to that pattern with greater aggression."

The new USMCA agreement that went into effect in 2020 also contains a unique review clause, and by its sixth anniversary on July 1, 2026, the U.S., Mexico and Canada will have to confirm in writing if they wish to extend the pact. If any country wants to tweak the trade agreement, it will spark a lengthy review process.

"That would be 2026, right in the middle of the next presidential term, and in a mid-term election year where many candidates for Congress – left and right – will be eager to show their commitment to the American worker," Ettinger said. "Should Trump win, I would expect him to reopen or threaten to reopen USMCA at that time."

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meets U.S. President Donald Trump at Winfield House in London on Tuesday, Dec. 3, 2019. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick)

Trump has not directly said if he will revisit the agreement, which was trumpeted as a better deal for the U.S. and a victory for his administration. But on the campaign trail, he has vowed to impose 10 per cent tariffs on all imports into the U.S., and 60 per cent tariffs on goods from China, without mentioning any exceptions.

"Trump can do quite a bit as president through executive orders," Ettinger said. "Canada could be excluded but it will take heroic diplomatic efforts on Canada's part to find the carve outs."

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In the lead-up to the November U.S. election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government has been actively courting American politicians and business leaders to tout the mutual benefits of free trade.

"The best argument as to why Canada shouldn't be hit with tariffs or punitive protectionist measures is that it would hurt American jobs as well," Trudeau told reporters in the U.S. in May.

That stance is supported by a recent Scotiabank analysis, which said 10 per cent tariffs and equivalent retaliation could aggravate inflation and lead to a 3.6 per cent decline in economic activity in Canada, and a 2.2 per cent decline in the U.S.

"Were Trump to implement the more controversial elements of his platform, namely the imposition of tariffs on all U.S. imports and the effective launch of a trade war… we would also expect substantial economic impacts in the United States and its trading partners," the report warned.

Harris opposed NAFTA and replacement

Relations and trade between Canada and the U.S. have been comparatively stable under Biden.

"Joe Biden also has protectionist leanings, though his are less explicitly hostile to Canada," Ettinger explained, citing U.S. electric vehicle rules and subsidies as an example. "Biden's purpose is not punitive though. His purpose is to use U.S. regulatory power to raise labour and environmental standards."

Harris opposed many Trump tariffs when she was a senator from California between 2017 and 2021, but she was also one of only 10 U.S. senators to vote against the new USMCA agreement, which passed with overwhelming bipartisan support in Jan. 2020.

Joining the likes of Senators Bernie Sanders and Chuck Schumer, Harris argued the agreement didn't do enough to tackle environmental issues.

"I have concluded that the USMCA's environmental provisions are insufficient – and by not addressing climate change, the USMCA fails to meet the crises of this moment," Harris said at the time.

Vice President Kamala Harris talks with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on the balcony of the Eisenhower Executive Office building on the White House campus, Thursday, Nov. 18, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

In a May 2019 interview, Harris said she would have also opposed the original NAFTA agreement, which Biden voted for as a senator in 1993.

"I would not have voted for NAFTA, and because I believe that we can do a better job to protect American workers," Harris told CNN. "I also believe that we need to do a better job in terms of thinking about… issues like the climate crisis and what we need to do to build [them] into these trade agreements."

Harris has not said if she would reopen USMCA as president, but has been known to shift and soften her positions.

"The Harris-Walz campaign is still vague on trade policy details, but I doubt it will be different from Biden’s in relation to the green economy, energy policy and more," University of Ottawa political scientist Srdjan Vucetic told CTVNews.ca.

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Having graduated from high school in Montreal, Harris has direct ties to Canada. So does her running mate for vice president, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, whose state shares an 885-km border with Ontario and Manitoba. Canada is also Minnesota's largest customer, buying approximately US$7.0-billion in goods in 2023.

In a 2020 Canada Day message, Walz said Minnesota's relationship with its northern neighbour encompasses everything from trade to tourism.

"It is true that Canada and Minnesota share a border, and are therefore inherently bonded, but our friendship extends much deeper than that," Walz said in a video posted online by the Consulate General of Canada in Minneapolis. "Our relationship extends from private sector investments by Canadian companies that employ thousands of Minnesotans, to Minnesota-based companies that have invested across Canada."

Who's better for Canada?

“Between Walz and Harris's background in Canada, these are two people that will have a good understanding of the relationship between the two countries," Western University U.S. politics specialist Matthew Lebo told The Canadian Press.

Former U.S. ambassador to Canada Bruce Heyman says a Harris and Walz win would also be a victory for Canada.

"You've got the best team for U.S.-Canada relations, in the Harris-Walz team, and maybe the best team that has existed, maybe, since Obama-Biden, where I worked as the U.S. ambassador," Hyman recently told CTV News. "This is clearly significantly better than the Trump team."

Vucetic, a professor in the University of Ottawa's graduate school of public and international affairs, says that while Canada can expect protectionist agendas from both the Republican and Democratic nominees, a Harris presidency would ultimately be better for Canada.

"Today, Democrats make promises to protect jobs and wages on a daily basis, and Kamala Harris cannot be an exception," Vucetic said. "Whoever gets to sit at the Resolute Desk in 2025 will seek to reinvigorate U.S. manufacturing and cement Buy American practices, and the challenge for Canadian policymakers will be to seek and secure various exceptions and exemptions for Canada."