Quebec poll shows CAQ maintaining lead over Liberals

Election trends: CAQ losing steam? Professor and founder of polling site QC125.com Philippe Fournier breaks down the new poll and the trends ahead of the next election.

An Ipsos poll shows the Coalition Avenir Quebec continues to be the first choice for a plurality of Quebecers, with the Liberal Party close behind.

According to the poll 35 per cent of voters would choose the CAQ, following by 32 per cent preferring the Liberals, and 20 per cent picking the Parti Quebecois.

That's a slight gain for the CAQ and the Liberals, along with a loss for the PQ, since the previous Ipsos poll in February.

Quebec Solidaire's support is about 8 per cent.

Those results are largely in agreement with polls conducted in April by Mainstreet and Leger.

CAQ leader Francois Legault said it's evident that Quebecers are choosing between two alternatives.

"I think the PQ is not in the game anymore, and I think it will be between the Liberal Party and the CAQ,” said Legault. “Will the Liberals get a few points? I don't exclude that in the next few months, so we have to be careful and work very hard.”

Natural Resources Minister Pierre Moreau said polls were important, but that they were only indicators, not a guarantee of what would happen in several months.

"It's a good thing not to comment on polls, because sometimes they go up, sometimes they go down, and you have to make many analyses that I don't want to make. For me, there's only one thing that matters. It's the way we handle things when we're in the government, and the result of the election, basically," said Moreau.

Meanwhile Parti Quebecois leader Jean-Francois Lisée, whose party has been steadily declining in polls for the past year and a half, said that he was not concerned.

"It's going as well for Mr. Legault now as it went for Denis Coderre five months before his defeat, and as well as it went for Thomas Mulcair five months before his defeat. One of them is now a radio commentator and the other is leaving for university. So that's how important polls are five months before an election," said Lisée.

Right now, the level of dissatisfaction with the Couillard government is at 60 per cent and the Liberals are also struggling with a critical demographic: the Francophone vote: with only 20 per cent support, compared to 41 per cent for the CAQ.

The Ipsos poll also shows that the Liberal party remains the first choice for Montrealers, at 47 per cent, and that the CAQ is now at 22 per cent on the island, with the PQ slipping to 16 percent. In February the PQ and CAQ were evenly split in Montreal.

Montreal's suburbs are split among the three major parties, with 36 per cent preferring the CAQ, 29 per cent the Liberals, and 22 per cent the PQ.

The CAQ's strongest support is in the Quebec City region, where 55 per cent prefer that party, and 18 would choose the Liberals. Just 13 per cent of those near Quebec City would vote PQ.

The strongest support for the PQ is in rural Quebec, at 32 per cent -- but the CAQ remains ahead at 33 per cent. The Liberals have the support of 22 per cent of rural residents, while Quebec Solidaire is at 10 per cent.

Support for an independent Quebec is in the doldrums.

Only 25 per cent of those polled said they would vote for sovereignty if a referendum were held today, while 55 per cent said they would vote to remain in Canada, with 20 per cent saying they were undecided--and historically, most undecideds support the status quo.

Ipsos said 68 per cent of PQ supporters are in favour of a separate Quebec, as are 41 per cent of Quebec Solidaire supporters and 25 per cent of CAQ voters.

The poll surveyed 2,001 adults in Quebec from April 29 to May 2, 2018, weighted by age, sex, region, language, and education level.

Ipsos says it has a confidence interval of 2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.