Flood outlook issued by Ausable Bayfield

The Ausable River in Exeter, Ont. as seen on March 31, 2023. (Source: Scott Varley)

The Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority (ABCA) has issued a flood outlook.

Upwards of 50mm of rain is expected in 24 hours with minor flooding expected within low-lying flood plains.

According to the ABCA, the heaviest rain is expected to come in two waves Friday, with the first wave reaching area this morning. A total of 5-10mm has already been observed across the watershed.

Forecasted rainfall through the morning and early afternoon has increased considerably from prior forecasts, and it is expected that heavy rains may result in an additional 25 mm from this first wave before a period of light showers Friday afternoon.

Rivers are expected to exceed bankfull, resulting in flooding of traditional low-lying flood plain areas. Streamflows in the smaller tributary creeks are expected to peak later Friday.

Residents are reminded to use extreme caution near all watercourses. Slippery and unstable streambanks, and extremely cold and fast-flowing water will combine to create hazardous conditions.

The conservation authority said the outlook will remain in effect until 12 p.m. on April 3, unless rainfall totals and local conditions warrant further updates.

Upper Thames River Conservation Authority statement

In addition, the Upper Thames River Conservation Authority is warning the public that water levels in local streams and rivers will rise Friday afternoon and into Saturday in response to the rainfall.

The conservation authority said the watershed has received 15-20 mm of rain since Friday morning, and expects an additional 15-20 mm of rain by Saturday evening.

Parents are reminded to keep children and pets away from all watercourses as slippery riverbanks, combined with cold and fast-moving water, pose a serious hazard.

"Water levels will remain above normal over the weekend and into next week. Serious flooding is not expected and levels should remain below those experienced last weekend," the release reads.