When could the COVID-19 pandemic switch to endemic?

Based on how Omicron is spreading and affecting hospitalization rates, an infectious diseases specialist says the COVID-19 pandemic could begin pivoting to an endemic status in higher-income countries by early spring.

“The Omicron surge will probably drive us fully into endemicity, where our death rates from COVID are low, where our hospitalizations are low. But it's going to take past the Omicron surge,” Dr. Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease specialist at University of California, San Francisco, told CTVNews.ca in a video interview on Tuesday.

Gandhi said it’s far too early to suggest there’s currently a transition from pandemic to endemic – which is defined as when a disease is regularly found among particular people or in a certain area.

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But she suggested that the transition could begin in late February to early March, at least for higher-income countries such as Canada. That will rely heavily on whether hospitalizations drop.

Gandhi said the transition towards endemic would still involve people wearing masks, but potentially a loosening of mask requirements in some instances and a larger emphasis on proper ventilation in enclosed spaces.

Watch her full breakdown in the video above.