Has Canada really passed the Omicron peak? Experts optimistic but urging caution

Canada's top doctor has said the latest wave of COVID-19 driven by the Omicron variant may have reached its peak.

But while the modelling appears encouraging, experts say the news should be interpreted with cautious optimism.

Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Theresa Tam told reporters on Friday that there are "early indications that infections may have peaked at the national level" based on daily case counts, test positivity, the reproduction number and wastewater data.

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"I hope we're at or nearing the peak, but the problem that I have is where we've got some uncertainty in the counting now since we don't do as much PCR testing as we once did," Dr. Ronald St. John, former director-general of the Public Health Agency of Canada's Centre for Emergency Preparedness and Response, told CTV News Channel on Saturday.

Due to the shortages in PCR testing capacity, many people who develop COVID-19, particularly if they're not in a high-risk group and have mild or no symptoms, have been unable to get PCR tests.

"We can't count people who are asymptomatic, so we have to look at other datasets (like) wastewater concentration, things like that, to try to get an understanding of where we are." St. John said.

Dr. Jason Kindrachuk, an infectious disease expert at the University of Manitoba, says the news shows "some optimism that things will slowly get back to normal, what they were like prior to Omicron."

However, Tam said that hospitalizations and ICU admissions are still climbing across Canada and health systems remain under "intense strain." Kindrachuk says it's unclear how quickly we might start seeing hospitalizations and ICU admissions start to decrease.

"I think we've learned over and over again from the pandemic is that you know, cases rise and then hospitalizations lag behind … and that trend also stays in place when cases start to recede," he told CTVNews.ca over the phone on Saturday.

"You may be able to slow down that hospitalization rate over time, but you are still going to have pressure on a health-care system that that has been pushed to its limits."

Dr. Christine Palmay, a Toronto-based family physician, says the hospitalization and ICU data also leave out a lot of patients dealing with debilitating symptoms. She and her colleagues have seen numerous patients who have tested positive for COVID-19 and are struggling with the virus at home.

"They're not captured by ICU stats. They're not necessarily accessing ER, but they're not functioning," she said.

PROVINCES BEGIN EASING RESTRICTIONS

Several provinces have also reported that Omicron may be peaking or close to peaking. In Ontario, Health Minister Christine Elliott said cases are expected to peak this month, followed by a peak in hospitalizations and ICU admissions. Quebec also reported that hospitalizations declined for the third straight day on Saturday.

Wastewater data in B.C. and Alberta have also shown signs that the virus may have peaked. However, health officials in Manitoba and Saskatchewan say it's too early to tell.

When COVID-19 cases began to reach unprecedented highs throughout Canada last month, provinces and territories imposed numerous health measures affecting restaurants, movie theatres, gyms, in-person schooling and more. Now, some provincial and territorial governments have plans to lift some of these restrictions.

Kindrachuk says these restrictions, on top of the rollout of booster shots, appear to have helped plateau cases. However, as these restrictions start to ease, he notes that cases have the potential to rise again.

"When you start to remove those safety breaks, you have the potential that things could start to build back in the opposite direction. So, we have to do it very methodically and certainly with a lot of oversight," he said.

St. John says he's also worried about health measures being lifted too quickly.

"We have to wait and stick to our public health measures as long as possible until we can be absolutely sure that we're coming out of the woods, and I'm not sure that we are yet," he said.