With voters alarmed by trade war, the NDP risks being left behind in federal election

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, second left, and NDP candidate Monique Taylor, second right, visits with people while they play bridge at a recreation centre during a federal election campaign stop in Hamilton, Ont., Wednesday, March 26, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette

OTTAWA — When Ashton Lagleva steps into the voting booth in a few weeks, it’ll be after he makes up his mind whether to vote for the Liberals or for the NDP.

Lagleva, who spoke with The Canadian Press at a campaign event for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh in Hamilton, Ont., said there’s an even chance of him voting for either party.

“First thing’s obviously the monster down south, that’s one. Affordability, health care, as well as human rights,” Lagleva said when asked what’s influencing his choice.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats have upended the Canadian political landscape, driving a wave of anxiety and patriotism that put wind in the sails of the struggling Liberal party in the late days of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s term.

Now, with new leader Mark Carney at the Liberal helm, polls point to a two-horse race between with Liberals and Conservatives - with the NDP running the risk of being squeezed out.

It’s a possibility that’s not lost on NDP supporters.

“I think everybody is, frankly, just so afraid of the Conservatives getting in with an agenda that is like MAGA maple, that they’re so fearful, we’re losing the people who really are NDP at heart,” NDP volunteer Diana Platts said outside a Toronto campaign event.

Before the election, pollster David Coletto told The Canadian Press that factors like Trump’s tariffs can have a polarizing effect on the electorate, pushing third parties like the NDP and Bloc Québécois to the sidelines.

Platts said she fears that is what is happening to the NDP in this campaign.

“What I think is fear and panic is gripping the hearts of Canadians, and the message that Jagmeet is giving so clearly and strongly is that you’ve got to vote your conscience,” she said.

Montreal-based NDP volunteer David Liu is looking forward to voting in his first Canadian election.

Liu came to Canada from China as a student in 2015. He said that now that he has permanent residency, he’s supporting the NDP because they look out for “the majority” of people with their policies.

He did give Carney credit for his handling of Trump tariffs during his week as prime minister before the election — something he sees as the catalyst for the Liberals’ current momentum.

Liu is spending his time knocking on doors for Nimâ Machouf, NDP candidate for Laurier — Sainte-Marie. He said he believes the party’s ground game can recapture support.

“As an NDP supporter, I believe the NDP should focus more on the riding-by-riding work to get more people to hear them, to hear their policies,” Liu said.

Fellow Montreal NDP supporter Florencia Cassagnet said social media can be a valuable tool to connect with prospective voters.

Singh reactivated his TikTok account on Jan. 6, the same day Trudeau announced his resignation. Since then, his posts have gotten hundreds of thousands of views.

One video of the NDP leader talking about his own story and policies while rewrapping his turban has been viewed nearly five million times on the platform.

Cassagnet said many people she speaks with see Canada as a two-party country.

“They really think there’s only two options, Liberal and Conservative. Also, a lot of people before were really just anti-Trudeau, so they were just supporting Poilievre because that’s the only option they though they had, even though they might disagree with his positions,” she said.

“I had a few friends, and I was like, ‘I know you, I know you don’t want to vote for him, but you just don’t know what else is out there.’ So, I think that’s really what it is, and people need to be more informed about what the NDP offers.”

On the campaign trail, Singh and his fellow candidates have been emphasizing NDP accomplishments such as getting dental care and pharmacare programs up and running during the last Liberal minority government.

Those achievements are part of the reason why John Catto, a “lifelong” steelworker in Hamilton, said he will still cast his ballot for the orange team even though the NDP is facing challenges.

“I don’t know that this is the time for us. I don’t know that that’s the case, but at the same time, I’m still gonna support my party, and I’m gonna hope that whoever does get in gets in with a minority government.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 5, 2025

David Baxter, The Canadian Press