Widespread wildfire, climate conspiracies difficult to extinguish

A wildfire burns as an empty street in Jasper, Alta., Wednesday, July 24, 2024. (Jasper National Park)

No sooner had the first pictures of fire-ravaged Jasper emerged than conspiracy theories about the cause of the wildfire started to spread.

The Jasper wildfire complex, driven by dry, hot conditions and extreme winds, grew to over 36,000 hectares, making it the largest fire in the park’s history. About 30 per cent of the townsite, 358 homes and businesses, were destroyed when the intense flames swept through the town.

As the disaster in one of the most loved places in Canada consumed the country’s attention, familiar narratives about state-directed arson, lasers, lockdowns, and climate change reignited online.

Environmental conspiracies have a long history in Alberta. For a considerable portion of the population, these beliefs are the lens through which they interpret major events, according to surveys from Common Ground, a University of Alberta research project.

"There’s an environmental track of conspiracy thinking that has had a lot of traction in Alberta. And it continues to," said Feo Snagovsky, a University of Alberta political scientist and researcher with Common Ground.

In two separate surveys conducted in 2023, researchers polled Albertans on a battery of conspiracy theories. One question asked participants to evaluate the statement climate change is a hoax put on by world governments.

"In that survey, about a quarter of respondents said that was either somewhat or very likely," Snagovsky said.

This figure represents the upper limit of support for the conspiracy, he noted, and the number of Albertans who believe climate change is a hoax is probably between 12 and 25 per cent.

Snagovsky said his team saw that belief play out during last summer’s wildfire season, when Albertans were polled on their thoughts about the relationship between the wildfires and climate change, as well as big picture and proximal causes of the fires.

When asked to choose between two statements – that climate change has made wildfires more common and more intense, or wildfires have always been common and climate change has no impact on them – 27 per cent of Albertans thought that climate change has no impact on wildfires.

Seven per cent of Albertans said 2023 wildfires were caused by arson, "echoing some of the language we heard from provincial leaders casting suspicion on whether this was deliberate or not," but 40 per cent felt it was equally likely that the wildfires were deliberately set or caused by lightning strikes and accidental human behaviour.

Decontextualized images and stories help spread misinformation

Scientists have said wildfires are becoming larger and more intense with rising temperatures and prolonged dry periods caused by climate change.

Amid last summer’s unprecedented wildfires, many high-profile media personalities and politicians downplayed this connection, suggesting instead that the fires were being deliberately set. Among them, Alberta Premiere Danielle Smith, who said she was concerned some of the fires were caused by arson and vowed to bring in arson investigators from outside the province.

A large portion of wildfires in Alberta every year are human caused, though arson accounted for only a fraction of fires in 2023. Provincial statistics show that lightning-caused wildfires were responsible for almost 80 per cent of the record 2.2 million hectares burned in Alberta. Less than 1 per cent of the area burned was deemed by investigators to be caused by arson.

Canadian academics and civil society groups mapped how conversations about climate change unfolded on X (Twitter) during the 2023 wildfires.In the report, produced by the Centre for Media, Technology and Democracy, Carleton University’s Re.Climate, and the Climate Action Against Disinformation Coalition, researchers observed that in early May, fears of arson were amplified in isolated parts of the conversation.

But by June these voices had become prominent and the "'alternative explanations' included full-fledged conspiracies linking wildfires to the 'climate agenda' and use of emergencies as a pretext for government overreach."

Many of the "alternative explanations" that emerged "[bridge] the feelings of distrust and unfairness stemming from COVID-19 pandemic policies into climate and energy conversations," such as conspiracies suggesting wildfires are deliberately set to impose "climate lockdowns," travel restrictions, or force communities to adopt 15-minute city policies.

The arson narrative and other conspiracy theories were boosted by influencers using decontextualized images and news stories, like a 2021 article about a Glendon woman being charged with 32 counts of arson.

The same process can be seen in current online conversations about Jasper.

One headline states the latest events put Jasper well above the national average for arson cases. The story is about Jasper, Texas, and was originally published in 2016.

A photo purporting to show a directed energy weapon cutting through the night sky with a green laser and igniting fires in Jasper was previously featured in a 2021 Popular Science article on the U.S. Army’s anti-mine laser system.

Need for information literacy, and grounding politics in truth

People have always been attracted to conspiracy theories, Snagovsky said. But with the use of the internet to connect people and to spread misinformation, more conspiracy theories have emerged.

"That suggests to me that there is a real need to help people understand how to differentiate between credible or not credible sources of information, which is digital literacy and information literacy," he said.

There is also a top-down element involved in countering misinformation and conspiracy thinking, because we rely on experts for guidance in understanding any number of subjects, including science and politics, Snagovsky said.

"When it comes to believing something to be true in politics, we often look to politicians and others we trust for that kind of decision making. And as a result, the kinds of things our political leaders say matter."

When media personalities and politicians promote ideas that may not be true, those messages can be seen by millions and shape public opinion. One of the most mainstream contemporary conspiracy theories involves the World Economic Forum (WEF) working in secret against regular people.

Canada wide, between 17 and 28 per cent of people believe this is true, Snagovsky said.

"The WEF is like a capitalist frat party. And I’m certainly not in the business of defending how great they are," he said. "But they are not this shadowy cabal that is trying to take over the world.

"And yet, we have political leaders in Canada, primarily on the political right, who have made some political hay by winking and nodding at that conspiracy. And it may fire up the base, but it’s irresponsible in my opinion, and doesn’t help in grounding politics in truth."