‘Every seat is going to count’: Consultant on recent events potentially impacting votes across Alberta

Consultant, Tom Vernon, discusses what the potential impact from the Canada-U.S. tariff war and new ridings could have on voters in Edmonton and Alberta.

Voters here in Edmonton and Alberta historically vote Conservative during federal elections. Senior consultant with Crestview Strategy, Tom Vernon, joined CTV Morning Live’s Kent Morrison to discuss the potential impact of Premier Smith’s comments, the redrawn electoral map in Edmonton and well-known names in the races.

This transcript has been edited for length and clarity.

Kent Morrison: Tom, let’s start with Danielle Smith, with her comments to Breitbart now in a Liberal ad attacking Pierre Poilievre. Is she hurting the federal party right now?

Tom Vernon: It’s one of those things where the federal party is looking at her and saying, “Stop helping.” Look, the Liberals are going to do all they can to try and tie Pierre Poilievre to Donald Trump. It’s been part of their strategy, and Premier Danielle Smith making those comments does not help Pierre Poilievres’ cause because it further draws those ties together, whether they’re true or not right.

Pierre Poilievre is running a campaign on axing the carbon tax and doing stuff for Canada, but these sorts of comments, they’re a distraction. They’ll be continued to be talked about by opposition parties, by parties opposed to Pierre Poilievre, so yes, not helpful for the Conservatives.

Kent: She’s doubled down and is taking this trip to Florida. Is that another step of the Conservative Party of Canada saying, “Stop helping?”

Tom: We’ll see how this one works out. It’s not a great look, because it opens up the premier for criticism and for who the audience she’s speaking with. The Conservatives, that’s going to get tied back to them. It’s going to be a distraction for them. It’s going to be something that they’re going to have to answer while they’re trying to speak about their agenda. So, we’ll see how this talk goes down there, and see what she says and how their actions are in the United States.

Kent: Let’s focus here in Edmonton because the map has been redrawn. There are more seats available in this election. Mark Carney, who is running for the Liberals, is from Edmonton. Do you think that Edmonton will get more attention from the Conservative Party as a result and the Liberal Party who are trying to win some seats?

Tom: It’s really interesting with how the boundaries have been redrawn, where all of a sudden, a couple seats in south Edmonton, they’re more interesting, right? The Liberals have a little bit more of a shot in south Edmonton. There’s a couple well-recognized names running in south Edmonton as well. I still have a hard time believing that there’s going to be this big, red surge across Alberta, and across Edmonton as well, because Pierre Poilievre is very strong in Alberta and very strong in Edmonton.

It should make for some more interesting races, and particularly on who’s running with Mayor Sohi. I think they’ll have to pay a little bit more attention here than perhaps they would have liked to with these safe seats and with the way things have changed with Mark Carney coming in and Justin Trudeau leaving. But I don’t expect to see a big wave of seats being lost by the Conservatives here.

Kent: Now you mentioned Mayor Sohi joining the federal Liberal campaign. Do you expect any other well-known names in this area to throw their hats in the ring, too?

Tom: I’m not sure. I’m not sure if it’s been made official, but we’ve heard about Rod Loyola potentially running for the Liberals here as well, which is interesting, like another known commodity in South Edmonton.

I don’t know any other specific big names, but we already have well-known names that are in tight seats here. We look at Edmonton Centre, where the former chair of the public school board is running, Trisha Estabrooks. She’s a well-known commodity, and that’s going to be an interesting race there with Randy Boissonnault stepping away, so what does that race look like? Then we’ve got the rematch with Blake Desjarlais and Kerry Diotte. We do have some interesting races here, and ones that people will be watching. Not just here in Edmonton, but nationally. Every seat is going to count in this election.