Edmonton weather: The warm before the storm

It's still warm on Tuesday but there is a wintery change for Thursday.

We’re in for another warm late-March day with temperatures topping out in the 10-11 degree range in Edmonton this afternoon.

Sunshine this morning will give way to some increasing cloud this afternoon and the wind should be a lot calmer than Monday.

But...there’s a spring snowstorm JUST around the corner.

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Snow will develop in western Alberta this afternoon/evening through the foothills and mountain parks. Areas from Edson SE toward Red Deer get a chance of showers this evening.

There’s a slight risk of a few showers pushing north into the Edmonton area early Wednesday morning.

But, I think the best chance for precipitation comes later in the day Wednesday. It’ll start as showers and/or wet snow and then we’re expecting it to flip over to snow at some point Wednesday night.

Total accumulation will depend (at least in part) on how quickly that flip happens and how much melts on contact before starting to stack up.

I’m very confident that this will be a significant snowfall for the Edmonton region, although actual totals could vary between 5 to 20 cm.

Wind will also be a factor, with gusts in the 30 to 40 km/h range starting Wednesday night and carrying through the day Thursday.

This spring snow event is expected to hit hardest around Hwy 16 from west to east.

However, areas further north from the Peace Country east toward Cold Lake will still get several centimetres of snow and gusty wind.

Meanwhile, southern Alberta will continue to enjoy some double-digit temperatures on Thursday before cooling Friday (and most areas should miss out on the snow).

It’s that collision of warm, moisture-laden air with some cooling aloft as an Upper Trough digs in that’s setting the stage for this spring snowstorm.

Bottom line: Snowfall totals are still uncertain, but heavy snow and blowing snow are very likely in the Edmonton area and across much of north-central Alberta starting Wednesday night and continuing through Thursday.

Travel will be significantly impacted.

Conditions will improve late Thursday or early Friday in the Edmonton region.

A big cooldown follows the snow, with daytime highs near zero to close the week.

Here’s the forecast for Edmonton and area:

Today - Sunny this morning. Increasing cloud this afternoon.

High: 11

Tonight - Mostly cloudy.

9pm: 5

Wednesday - Mostly cloudy. 30% chance of showers in the morning, 60% chance in the evening.

Morning Low: 0

Afternoon High: 7

70% chance of rain turning to snow overnight. Risk of heavy snow.

Wind gusting to 40 km/h

Thursday - Cloudy with periods of snow, heaviest in the morning.

Wind NE 15-20 with 30-40 km/h gusts.

Morning Low: -2

Afternoon High: 2

Friday - Cloudy. 40% chance of flurries in the morning.

Breezy.

Morning Low: -5

Afternoon High: -1

Saturday - Mostly cloudy.

Morning Low: -7

Afternoon High: -2

Sunday - Mostly cloudy.

Morning Low: -8

Afternoon High: 0