Liberal strategist: Carney’s ‘centrist edge’ could play well in Alberta

Sabrina Grover on Alberta Primetime, March 11, 2025

Liberal strategist Sabrina Grover joins Alberta Primetime host Michael Higgins to discuss new Liberal leader Mark Carney and the road ahead.

This interview has been edited for clarity and length.

Michael Higgins: Mark Carney captured the Liberal leadership in a landslide with nearly 86 per cent of the vote.

What does that reflect to you? What’s it say about the mandate mark Carney now has as Liberal leader?

Sabrina Grover: I think it was really fascinating to see that level of support on a first round ballot with a pretty solid second contender in Chrystia Freeland.

It gives Mr. Carney a really, really solid mandate.

One of the things I’ve heard anecdotally about Mr. Carney’s campaign and about the people that were attending that campaign is - a lot of folks have said when they looked around the room, they didn’t know anyone in the room.

That’s important, because it means that there were a lot of brand-new people drawn to this party that took out memberships and came to his events.

That’s a strong mandate, not only just from registered Liberals - which we know many of them would have re-registered and voted in this race - but also from Canadians.

I think this gives us a general idea of a new sampling of Canadians who may have become interested in the campaign and voted for Carney.

MH: How challenged will he be to deliver what he’s suggesting – a quick and seamless transition?

Especially as Canada continues to face down the uncertainty and chaos of a Trump tariffs trade war – which today escalated wit the apparent doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminum in response to Ontario’s electricity surcharge?

SG: Number one, I would say his first step is to establish a relationship immediately with premiers and territorial leaders across the country.

They are on the front lines of having to deal with some of these economic impacts because of the industries that are affected - namely, energy, agricultural, electricity.

That was something that he already indicated he would do.

I think it’s important that he’s keeping Don LeBlanc and Melanie Joly in their roles, because they have been really important in communicating with the United States.

Keeping predictability in those in those roles is important, especially as you think about heading into a national election in the next couple of weeks.

The last piece, I’d say, is - it’s interesting that he’s pulled a chief of staff from the MP cohort.

Again, I think that keeps a little bit of predictability and sustainability.

Marco [Mendicino] has obviously been in the house for the last number of years, and has been in the House over the last couple of weeks as the U.S. piece has unfolded.

So I think that potentially offers some sustainability.

MH: How long does Mark Carney wait before triggering an election?

Could it come as quickly as the next couple of weeks, as some have already suggested?

SG: I do think you’re likely to see something come in the next couple of weeks.

Number one, obviously, the momentum of the Liberal Party is strong - and the mobilization of grassroots volunteers is huge.

When you’re heading into an election period, the number one thing you need is volunteers, and the fact that this party has been able to mobilize so many people in a leadership really bodes well for a field game in an election.

The last piece is that you really want to be able to cut off the Conservatives on their spending. The quicker you can move into an election, the quicker you can cut off ad spending and constrain it to the writ period.

MH: We all know Carney is not a career politician, so how does he differentiate himself from the campaign firepower of Pierre Poilievre?

SG: What people are looking for right now is really different than what people might have been looking for in September 2024 if an election was called.

The unpredictability, the daily chaos, the mania of Donald Trump needs to be met with a steady, calm, rational hand. That’s what you’re getting in Mark Carney.

On the other hand, we’ve seen Pierre continue to delve in these toxic, kind of annoying, tropes where he’s talking about “Carbon Tax Carney” and continues to be negative.

He really hasn’t come around to this idea that he is Canada first - it’s almost unbelievable, if you’re a voter, that he’s in it for Canada, or that he’s going to stand up for Canada. Except he says it a bunch of times.

That is actually going to come through really clearly in a campaign. I think that what people are going to be looking for is that steady hand and that steady approach, especially when you’re going to see Donald Trump on your screens every day.

MH: There’s continued reference to Mark Carney’s Alberta roots.

What do you see Carney actually having to offer to Albertans that would sway any degree of support out here in the west?

SG: What’s really interesting is when you actually dig into the results of the leadership race - even in strongholds in Calgary that are Conservative, over 1,000 people in that riding came out to vote for the leadership candidates. Most of that vote going to Mark Carney.

Alberta actually had the third highest number of respondents in the leadership race.

This is not to say we’re going to switch over the conservative stronghold in the province. But he does offer some stability, specifically for Albertans who are looking for more information on the energy sector.

His approach to reducing or to canceling the carbon tax, I think is also going to have a big appeal here.

He does have a bit of that centrist edge to him that I think does appeal to Albertans broadly. So we’ll see how that plays out in a in a election, in key ridings.

I don’t think it’s going to change the whole province, but there are some ridings that certainly could be at play.

MH: With that in mind, how would you rate the possibility of Mark Carney actually running in an Edmonton riding?

SG: I’d rate it pretty low.

It’s more likely you’ll see him run in Ontario, though his roots are in Alberta.

He’s really built his business and his political and public service legacy in Ontario, and so I think that’s likely where you’re going to see him.