‘A lot of questions about the question’: Plenty to iron out before separation referendum could take place, political scientist says

Jared Wesley, University of Alberta Political Science Professor, speaks with Alberta Primetime host Michael Higgins about a separation referendum

Jared Wesley, University of Alberta political science professor, speaks with Alberta Primetime host Michael Higgins about the possibility of a separation referendum

This interview has been edited for clarity and length.

Michael Higgins: Is it just hypothetical? How far down the road do you think we actually are to a referendum on separation?

Jared Wesley: I think the folks that put some pressure on the government and approach the premier’s office to lower the thresholds for the referendum, definitely lowered the thresholds for a citizen plebiscite, have definitely been thinking about this for a while.

My sense is that similar folks were involved in the attempt to recall Mayor Gondek in Calgary and they encountered some challenges around that. So they’ve come prepared with some with ways to clear the path towards a citizen initiative and eventually a referendum and I think we should all as Albertans be prepared for such a vote as early as next year.

MH: As Albertans saw with a recent rally at the legislature, there are some pretty motivated Albertans keen on pushing this forward. How public and engaged a discussion do you see this developing into for all of Albertans?

JW: Our team was actually on the ground at that independence rally at the legislature last weekend, and I can say it’s so far the usual suspects that are involved in the on the ground campaign for the for the separatist movement.

There’s not a sense at this stage, at least from the outside, that there is one particular leader, or one particular group that that is in the lead in terms of gathering eventual signatures or even developing the question that would appear on the petition.

When we talked with a lot of the rally goers, that was their biggest question, ‘Who’s leading this thing?’ There was a sense that some of the usual folks that have got YouTube channels and podcasts that are devoted to this stuff are definitely the public, or entertainment, champions of the movement, but there’s still not a sense of who’s got the organizing capacity to do this.

Most movements require both political leadership, in other words, providing some legitimacy and normalcy and or normalization of the movement, and usually that political leadership comes out of an established political party, somebody who’s either currently in that party, or has a previous experience in that realm, and we still haven’t seen anyone in particular step up into that role yet.

When it comes to the grassroots organizing, the right and the far right in Alberta is a very fragmented movement. I’m not saying that disparagingly. It’s just the reality of folks that travel in those circles, they don’t particularly like hierarchical structures and they don’t like being told what to do.

So at this stage, it’s still unclear who’s going to emerge to lead it, either politically or organizationally.

MH: In terms of considerations for life in Alberta post-separation, how would you paint that picture for someone gung-ho to see this happen? What might it look like for everything from currency to health care, social services, taxation?

JW: I think we jump right to what would happen if the vote was positive and most constitutional scholars are weighing in and saying that a positive vote does not necessarily mean immediate separation. There’s a lot of steps that have to happen after that point.

I would challenge folks that are thinking about organizing a separation campaign to think even more close to the present day and ask what impact will this conversation itself have on the Alberta community and society, in terms of polarizing us further into, in this case, yes or no camps that will fall somewhat along left versus right lines, federalists versus separatists and so on.

Also the impact that these discussions are going to have on the Alberta economy specifically but the Canadian economy more broadly. We know this from Brexit but we also know it from the 1995 Quebec referendum that investors, who we require in order to continue to move our economy forward, don’t like instability and they don’t like uncertainty, and there’s nothing more uncertain than if one province is openly discussing whether to leave the country or not.

I think we spend a lot of time talking about, ‘What are the economic and social benefits of separation down the road?’ We have to ask ourselves, what are the costs of it in the short term and is it worth it?

MH: Let’s say a citizen led initiative leads to a referendum, a plebiscite on separation in 2026, what will hinge on how the question is worded, how that question is formulated?

JW: I don’t know if the premier meant to leave this hanging up in the air. It really depends on what the question is. When it comes to referendums, her government will determine what that question will look like.

She has to table that question and not just in the Alberta legislature, but if she wants to follow the letter of the law as passed down by the Supreme Court of Canada and then through the clarity act, she’s going to actually have to table that question in Parliament because Parliament must decide whether that question is clear enough to provide a substantive outcome if the vote takes place.

The premier has said that question will respect treaty rights. The question is, how do you incorporate that into a straightforward question? Then there’s all kinds of questions as to, ‘Is this a straight up Alberta is going to form an independent country? Is this something like Alberta will seek to be annexed or seek to join the United States as a 51st state?’

So there’s a lot riding on this question and quite frankly the separatist movement itself hasn’t sorted those things out. There are folks that we saw at the rally that are flying American flags or American slash Alberta flags and other folks that we interviewed that go, ‘I have no intention of being part of the United States, I want Alberta to be a free and independent country’.

So there are a lot of questions about the question.

MH: The premier said it’s her job to ensure that it doesn’t get to a yes. So how challenging will it be for Danielle Smith, the UCP government, to navigate the political dynamic that appears to be unfolding here?

JW: Well, she shouldn’t ask me, she should probably ask how that went for David Cameron, who started the U.K. down the path towards Brexit and had one outcome in mind. In this case, the same that the premier does.

She seems to think that Albertans will want to remain within confederation. Sounds like she might take a leadership role in that no side. I’m not sure what that looks like, but soon she’ll find out that referendums take on a life of their own, and that she may not be in control of the movement that she seems to be clearing the path for right now.