Bust out your long johns, Canada – this winter will be cooler than normal, according to one of the country’s leading climatologists.
The first day of winter officially arrives Thursday, and Environment Canada senior climatologist David Phillips says Canadians can expect the season to be chillier than last year, but with intermittent blasts of milder temperatures.
For that reason, Phillips is describing the conditions this year as “yo-yo” weather, and he isn’t ruling out “polar vortex”-like conditions.
“Last year we got kind of spoiled, we were the 7th warmest winter in 70 years. Not this year. We think it will be a little cooler than normal in many parts of Canada. Not necessarily punishing cold, although we are going to see some cool-off as we get to the end of the year,” Phillips told CTV News Channel on Wednesday, the final day of autumn.
“So my sense is that we’re going to know where we live this year -- in the second-coldest country in the world.”
Phillips credits La Nina, a cool mass of water in the Pacific Ocean, for driving those expected chilly temperatures.
Asked whether Canada will experience freezing conditions as cold as in 2014, the season that spawned the term “polar vortex,” Phillips admitted, “At times, I think so.”
“We’re going to see, for example, before the year is out, we may see highs in the Prairies of -21, -22, -23,” he said. “So I think the polar vortex is part of our vocabulary. Siberian Express – there are different words for (the conditions).”
But, for those already counting down the days until summer, Phillips says the deep freeze won’t last, and Canadians will see temperatures sporadically rise and fall.
“It’s not going to be one long, hoary season,” he said, describing the conditions as “yo-yo” weather. “Melting at times, thawing, and then some cold. And I always think that kind of variety of weather will make the season go a little faster.”
With Christmas just days away, plenty of Canadians are still unsure whether or not they can expect a white Christmas.
The Weather Network’s Chief Meteorologist Chris Scott told The Canadian Press that, thanks to unpredictable weather systems, people living in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada likely won’t have a clear answer until they wake up on Christmas morning. Scott said a snowy Christmas seems more likely in British Columbia, southern Alberta, parts of Saskatchewan and northern Canada.
Phillips predicts that 95 per cent of Canada will see a white Christmas, but he has doubts as to whether 95 per cent of Canadians will see snow.
“It looks like touch and go for Toronto, maybe we will, and also for Victoria and Vancouver. If they come into the white Christmas column, I think 95 per cent of Canadians can not just dream about a white Christmas, but actually enjoy one.”
Earlier this month, Phillips predicted a warmer-than-normal forecast, but cautioned that “it’s not going to be Miami of the North.” In late October, the Old Farmer’s Almanac called for a “baby alpaca” winter with mild conditions and fewer ferocious storms.
With files from The Canadian Press
