'We must do everything possible to avert a hurricane of hunger': War in Ukraine threatens global food supplies

Possible grain shortage has global implications The war in Ukraine may cause a food shortage this summer and drive food costs higher. Kevin Green reports

The UN issued a stark warning Monday that the war in Ukraine is putting pressure on the world's food supplies and could lead to further conflicts around the world.

“Russia and Ukraine represent more than half of the world’s supply of sunflower oil and about 30 percent of the world’s wheat. Ukraine alone provides more than half of the World Food Programme’s (WFP) wheat supply.  Food, fuel and fertilizer prices are skyrocketing.  Supply chains are being disrupted.  And the costs and delays of transportation of imported goods – when available – are at record levels," said United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres. "All of this is hitting the poorest the hardest and planting the seeds for political instability and unrest around the globe."

Guterres said many of the hardest hit countries are also among the poorest on earth.

"Forty-five African and least developed countries import at least one-third of their wheat from Ukraine [or] Russia – 18 of those countries import at least 50 per cent. This includes countries like Burkina Faso, Egypt, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen. We must do everything possible to avert a hurricane of hunger and a meltdown of the global food system," Guterres said.

Between 720 million to 811 million people faced hunger in 2020, according to a recent report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Countries in the Middle East, Northern Africa and Asia rely heavily on imports from Ukraine and Russia. Lebanon says it has only about a month’s supply of wheat in storage, and has seen its grain deliveries crippled by the war.

"We're already hearing from some countries like Egypt, like Syria, where inventories are alarmingly low right now already. And so that's why this invasion is really putting a lot of pressure on this key region of the world," said Dalhousie university professor Sylvain Charlebois, who teaches food security.  "People will fight for whatever's left, and in some parts of the world, you're likely to see some civil unrest, unfortunately."

Traditionally a large donor to the world food program Canada is not in a position to supply large quantities of grain right now, said federal agriculture minister Marie-Claude Bibeau. "We also know that in Canada and the United States, we did not have such a great season last year because of the drought."

Instead, Bibeau said Canada will support the program with cash. "Providing humanitarian assistance, actual money to the World Food Programme, and coordinating with our industry to supply wheat and other food commodities is what Canada is doing."

DROUGHT IMPACT

The Alberta Wheat and Barley Commission agrees saying 2021's drought reduced grain supplies stored on the prairies, making it nearly impossible for Canadian farmers to export grain to the world market right now.

"It would be very difficult for the other exporting nations of wheat in the world to pick up the slack in the short term," said Tom Steve, general manager of the Alberta Wheat and Barley Commission. "A lot of our inventories are depleted because we're trying to serve our core customers, and we will not have a lot of flex room in terms of providing additional supplies to replace what may not be able to come out of the Black Sea region."

Steve noted that wheat prices have spiked 37.73 per cent in the past month as a result of the war but added that high input costs for fertilizer, fuel and pesticides will prevent famers from reaping a windfall this year.

"It's great that wheat prices are high, but it's not (all) great (because of) the cost of producing that crop," Steve added.  "This may be the most expensive crop that Alberta farmers have grown in recent memory."

Russia also produces almost 30 per cent of the world’s fertilizer.  That country is facing sanctions, and additionally, holding back supplies for domestic use, further pressuring the world supply.

"We have a lot of that fertilizer already in place before the war and before the sanctions, but we are still short," said Karen Proud, president and CEO of Fertilizer Canada." What that means is, if we're not able to source that fertilizer from elsewhere, we may not have the sort of yields that we're hoping for this year to really help fill that gap and help support the rest of the world."

And while the shortage is sure to drive up costs of groceries, especially for grain-based products like baked goods and pastas, Charlebois said North American consumers should still consider themselves fortunate.

"We are looking at higher food prices, but we actually have something to buy. We need to be grateful for that."