Widow looking for answers after Quebec man dies in Texas Ironman competition
The widow of a Quebec man who died competing in an Ironman competition is looking for answers.
The outlook for the loonie in 2023 largely depends on commodity prices, how the U.S. dollar fares, and whether central banks are successful in avoiding a major recession, experts said.
The Canadian dollar recently rose to its highest level in more than two months against the U.S. dollar, which gained strength Friday after a stronger-than-expected jobs report.
However, analysts are predicting some further weakness in the U.S. dollar in 2023. CIBC, in a Jan. 23 report, said the currency will likely weaken in 2023, which may result in Canadian dollar strength in later quarters.
Analysts at several major Canadian banks predict the loonie will be worth almost 77 cents US by the end of 2023, while it's currently closer to 75 cents US.
But not everyone agrees. Kevin Burkett, portfolio manager at Victoria-based Burkett Asset Management, doesn't think the U.S. dollar will flag, while he sees commodities, a big driver of the loonie, weakening in 2023.
In 2022, the loonie's key drivers -- interest rates and commodities -- were highly volatile, Burkett said. But the dollar itself didn't swing because its main counterpart, the U.S. dollar, was seeing similar moves, especially when it came to the direction and pace of interest rates.
But if economic conditions and policy decisions between the two countries begin to diverge in 2023, that could affect the exchange rate, Burkett said.
"I see Canada in a weaker position to start the year than the US, both because of the commodities outlook and because I think the impact of higher interest rates is much more significant in Canada than it is in the U.S.," Burkett said.
Michael Greenberg, senior vice-president and portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, said the consumer in Canada is a little weaker relative to the U.S. consumer due to debt levels and the housing market, making us more sensitive to interest rates.
Greenberg said if an economic downturn provoked by central banks' policies is harsher than expected or hoped for, that would weaken the loonie, while a soft landing for the economy would mean strength for the Canadian dollar.
The loonie held up relatively well against most of its international peers for most of last year, Greenberg said.
"We held up much better than the euro and the yen, but ... we didn't hold up as well versus the U.S. dollar," he said.
In the last quarter, there was a bit of a shift, he said, when it became clear inflation had peaked after months of aggressive interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, which were ahead of other countries with their tightening. Other markets like Japan and Europe shifted their own policies to fight inflation, and their currencies took off, Greenberg said.
Meanwhile, the strong commodity prices that had bolstered the loonie earlier in 2023 started to weaken, he said.
The Canadian dollar's outlook for the year is highly contingent on external developments, with commodity prices and valuation potential positives for the dollar, Scotiabank said in a report early January.
The bank said while U.S. dollar weakness later in the year would be a boost for the loonie, the Canadian dollar is expected to underperform against many of its G10 peers this year.
Greenberg thinks the Canadian dollar will be relatively rangebound in 2023, with a little more economic certainty removing some of the risk.
"We should expect maybe a little bit less volatility," he said, adding that while investors may still have some opportunity to profit from the loonie's highs and lows, consumers making decisions about shopping or travelling in the U.S. shouldn't worry too much about the currency making big moves throughout the year.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 6, 2023.
The widow of a Quebec man who died competing in an Ironman competition is looking for answers.
Former NDP leader Tom Mulcair says that what's happening now in a trash-littered federal park in Quebec is a perfect metaphor for how the Trudeau government runs things.
The world is seeing a near breakdown of international law amid flagrant rule-breaking in Gaza and Ukraine, multiplying armed conflicts, the rise of authoritarianism and huge rights violations in Sudan, Ethiopia and Myanmar, Amnesty International warned Wednesday as it published its annual report.
A photographer who worked for Megan Thee Stallion said in a lawsuit filed Tuesday that he was forced to watch her have sex, was unfairly fired soon after and was abused as her employee.
Facing pushback from physicians and businesspeople over the coming increase to the capital gains inclusion rate, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his deputy Chrystia Freeland are standing by their plan to target Canada's highest earners.
The Senate passed legislation Tuesday that would force TikTok's China-based parent company to sell the social media platform under the threat of a ban, a contentious move by U.S. lawmakers that's expected to face legal challenges.
People living near a wildfire burning about 15 kilometres southwest of Peace River are being told to evacuate their homes.
The U.S. Senate has passed US$95 billion in war aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, sending the legislation to President Joe Biden after months of delays and contentious debate over how involved the United States should be in foreign wars.
A Winnipeg man said a single date gone wrong led to years of criminal harassment, false arrests, stress and depression.
The giant stone statues guarding the Lions Gate Bridge have been dressed in custom Vancouver Canucks jerseys as the NHL playoffs get underway.
A local Oilers fan is hoping to see his team cut through the postseason, so he can cut his hair.
A family from Laval, Que. is looking for answers... and their father's body. He died on vacation in Cuba and authorities sent someone else's body back to Canada.
A former educational assistant is calling attention to the rising violence in Alberta's classrooms.
The federal government says its plan to increase taxes on capital gains is aimed at wealthy Canadians to achieve “tax fairness.”
At 6'8" and 350 pounds, there is nothing typical about UBC offensive lineman Giovanni Manu, who was born in Tonga and went to high school in Pitt Meadows.
Kevin the cat has been reunited with his family after enduring a harrowing three-day ordeal while lost at Toronto Pearson International Airport earlier this week.
Molly Knight, a Grade 4 student in Nova Scotia, noticed her school library did not have many books on female athletes, so she started her own book drive in hopes of changing that.
Almost 7,000 bars of pure gold were stolen from Pearson International Airport exactly one year ago during an elaborate heist, but so far only a tiny fraction of that stolen loot has been found.