TORONTO - If the fiasco over faith-based schools funding hadn't stolen the spotlight during the Ontario election campaign, a sideshow skirmish over Progressive Conservative Leader John Tory's promise to shave $1.5 billion in government spending might have made more of a splash.
Experts have given the fiscal plan mixed reviews, some calling it feasible while others maintain skepticism that it can be done without cuts to lesser priority programs like welfare and post-secondary education.
The Liberals, who took pains to paint Tory as a throwback to his predecessor Mike Harris before the writ was even dropped, have jumped on the pledge as a one-way ticket to the turbulent years of provincewide strikes and massive cutbacks that marred Harris' so-called "Common Sense Revolution.''
But the Conservatives, who promised to boost spending in such voter-favourite programs as health care and education while still gradually phasing out the controversial $2.6-billion health tax, say they could easily find so-called "efficiencies'' -- shaving about two per cent from the government's annual budget.
After all, Tory charged, the Liberals cut $800 million from their last budget and still managed to dole out $32 million in last-minute grants to groups without any accountability.
Problem is, the Conservative leader hasn't identified where he'd find those "efficiencies.'' When questioned, Tory has maintained that he'd conduct an audit of government programs first and reassured voters that if anything, they'll see an improvement in services under a Conservative government.
Such lofty promises have left many wondering where Tory would trim the fat.
"I was thinking back to the previous Conservative government and the kinds of things that they intended to cut. And there's not too much in the platform that assures us that those same kinds of cuts won't come back up on the agenda,'' said Lisa Philipps, an associate professor at York University's Osgoode Hall Law School.
"They're being very quiet about tuition policy, for instance, and they're being very quiet about welfare programs. Those were favourites for the previous Conservative government to cut.''
The Conservatives say they're committed to maintaining Liberal promises to tackle poverty, such as the Ontario Child Benefit, and have promised to boost spending on providing expensive therapy for autistic children, for example.
But governments often break their promises when circumstances change, Philipps points out.
The Liberals imposed the health premium _ which can cost each worker up to $900 a year _ in 2004 after promising not to raise taxes, citing a larger-than-expected provincial deficit inherited by the previous Conservative government. The Conservatives also failed to keep their promises to immediately cut taxes and run balanced budgets following the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks in the United States, says Philipps.
There's another storm looming on the horizon, with the high-flying loonie pummelling Ontario's key manufacturing sector and experts predicting softening growth in Canada due to a lagging U.S. economy.
Eliminating the health tax will make it harder to cut spending, particularly if Tory avoids such big-ticket, priority programs as health care and education, said Mark Stabile, a political science professor at the University of Toronto.
"I don't think it's outrageous for (Tory) to say that he's going to have to do a program review,'' he said.
"What I do think is also true though is that he will find that it will be very difficult, without touching the major service delivery programs, to find the savings he's looking to find. And the fact that he is going to be removing a revenue stream in the meantime will only make it more difficult.''
But Jack Mintz, a tax expert and professor of business economics at the University of Toronto's Joseph L. Rotman School of Management, says both the Liberal and Conservative fiscal plans are feasible.
"In fact, if anything, they both underestimated their revenue projection _ more so the Liberals than the Conservatives,'' said Mintz, who previously headed the C.D. Howe Institute, a conservative-oriented business think tank.
"And as a result, I'm not even sure Tory would even have to do that much in cutting.''
The Conservatives say, if elected Oct. 10, their plan would set aside enough money to deal with most unforeseen problems.
"All parties, when they release their platforms, always say this is based on sound assumptions,'' Philipps said.
"But they're still just assumptions about the future that is unknowable.''
