One point separates Liberals, Tories and NDP: poll
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister Stephen Harper and NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair appear in this composite image. (Sean Kilpatrick, Adrian Wyld / THE CANADIAN PRESS)
Published Wednesday, October 30, 2013 10:00PM EDT
The Senate scandal appears to be chipping away at Conservative support, according to a new poll, which shows that the three main federal political parties are now within one percentage point of each other two years out from the next election.
The two-part Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CTV News found that if an election were held tomorrow:
- the Conservatives would receive 30 per cent support (down 2 points from September);
- the Liberals would receive 31 per cent support (no change from September);
- and the NDP would receive 31 per cent support (up 5 points from September).
The Bloc Quebecois would receive 6 per cent support (25 per cent in Quebec), while the Green Party would receive 2 per cent support (down one point from September).
The poll found that 15 per cent of respondents are undecided.
Among voters who indicated that “nothing short of an unforeseen emergency” would stop them from voting, the Liberals gain a bit of an edge while the NDP dip slightly. Among those voters, the Liberals would receive 32 per cent support, the Conservatives 30 per cent and the NDP 28 per cent.
The poll notes that while “the Senate scandal has instigated some movement in vote support, the change has not been significant thus far.”
However, the numbers show the NDP gaining the most support between the first and the second part of the poll.
The polling conducted between Oct. 16 and Oct. 20 put the Liberals at 33 per cent support, the Conservatives at 31 per cent and the NDP at 27 per cent support. The polling conducted between Oct. 25 and Oct. 28 put the Liberals and NDP at 31 per cent support and the Conservatives at 30 per cent.
The Bloc and the Greens remained consistent at 6 per cent and 2 per cent support, respectively, over both polling periods.
The NDP’s gains were most significant between the two polling periods in Alberta (where they were up 9 points), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (up 6 points), Ontario (up 6 points), and B.C. (up 5 points).
When respondents were asked about Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s job performance and whether he deserves re-election, the poll found that 30 per cent believe that the “Harper government has done a good job and deserves re-election” in 2015. That’s the same result as a poll conducted in July. Seventy per cent of respondents said they were ready for a new government, again unchanged from July.
Leaving out whether they think the Harper government deserves re-election, the numbers rise slightly among those who approve of its performance. About 40 per cent of respondents “approve” of the government’s performance, compared to 60 per cent who “disapprove.”
And the prime minister’s own approval rating has dipped only slightly, by one point from July, to 41 per cent.
Support broken down by province:
- Ontario: the Conservatives and NDP have 33 per cent support, the Liberals 32 per cent
- Quebec: the NDP are at 32 per cent support, the Liberals 30 per cent, the Bloc are at 25 per cent and the Conservatives 12 per cent
- British Columbia: the NDP are at 36 per cent, the Conservatives are at 29 per cent while the Liberals are at 28 per cent
- Alberta: the Conservatives still have their biggest lead here, with 49 per cent support, while the NDP have 26 per cent and the Liberals are at 19 per cent
- Saskatchewan and Manitoba: the Conservatives are at 46 per cent, the NDP are at 29 per cent and the Liberals are at 24 per cent
- Atlantic Canada: the Liberals have a huge lead at 55 per cent, with the Tories at 26 per cent and the NDP at 17 per cent
The two-part poll of more than 2,100 respondents was conducted between Oct. 16 and 20, and then from Oct. 25 to Oct. 28. The findings are considered accurate to within +/- 2.4 percentage points for the merged sample and +/- 3.4 percentage points for the individual samples.