NDP Leader Tom Mulcair has come a long way over the past year.
At this time in 2014, only 16 per cent of Canadians said they would prefer him as prime minister, compared to 30 per cent for both Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
But the latest Nanos data shows that Mulcair has pulled neck and neck with his two main competitors – all three federal party leaders are now polling at 27 per cent when it comes to the question of preferred prime minister.
Conservative downswing
As the New Democrats continue to enjoy their positive trend, the Conservatives appear to be sliding in the opposite direction.
After a steady decline over the past five weeks, Harper’s party sits at 50 points on the Nanos Party Power Index out of a possible 100.
- NDP: 56 (no change)
- Liberals: 53 (no change)
- Conservatives: 50 (down two points)
- Green: 31 (no change)
- Bloc: 28 (up one point)
With orange moving up as blue moves down, it seems like the NDP are hitting a particular nerve with people who might be unhappy with Harper and the Conservatives.
For the first time ever, it's a 3-way tie between the leaders of the three major political parties in Canada. Nik Nanos explains what this means ahead of an election.
Posted by CTV News on Wednesday, June 24, 2015
Realistically, the campaign is on – it’s a dead heat just in time for summer, and this season will be very important when it comes to who Canadians eventually pick at the polls.
The Nanos Party Power Index comprises a basket of political goods that includes ballot preferences, accessible voters, preferred PM views and evaluations of the leaders. It is modeled similar to a standard confidence index. The results are based on a four-week rolling average of opinion solicited through a random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians in the period ending June 19th, 2015. It is considered accurate plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
