It appears the budget really was the trick to halting the Conservatives’ slide. After a six-week downturn, Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s party has reversed the trend and is right in line with the NDP on the Nanos Party Power Index.

The Conservative Party is sitting at 52 points out of a possible 100, tied with the New Democrats.

  • Liberals: 56 (down one point)
  • Conservatives: 52 (up one point)
  • NDP: 52 (no change)
  • Green: 33 (down one point)
  • Bloc: 26 (no change)

Good news and bad news

Though the Tories should be happy about the end of their dip in the polls, the news isn’t all good for Harper. His party still sits behind Justin Trudeau’s Liberals both in the Party Power Index and in terms of which party Canadians would consider voting for.

According to the newest numbers, 40 per cent of Canadians would consider voting Conservative, compared to 47 per cent NDP and 53 per cent Liberal. That means if the election were held today, the Conservatives would be hard-pressed to form a majority.

Note, though, that the percentage of support a party has doesn’t directly translate into the percentage of seats the party will win – seat numbers are based more on the distribution of votes.

 

 

The latest Nanos poll suggests the Conservative's slide has stopped for a second week since the budget, but the Liberals still rank highest.

Posted by CTV News on Thursday, May 7, 2015

All eyes on Alberta

Tuesday is provincial election day for Alberta, and though the vote isn’t taking place at the federal level, any kind of setback for the Conservatives could have a direct federal implication.

The Progressive Conservatives have held office since 1971 in Alberta, and an NDP government – as the polls are suggesting might happen – could send a political ripple through the country.

Even if the NDP form a minority government, they’ll have eaten into the PC’s 70-seat stronghold in the province – and any seat that turns from blue to orange could potentially mean a federal riding up for grabs in Alberta.

The Nanos Party Power Index comprises a basket of political goods that includes ballot preferences, accessible voters, preferred PM views and evaluations of the leaders. It is modeled similar to a standard confidence index. It is a random telephone survey conducted with live agents, reaching out to Canadians through a land- and cell-line dual frame sample.