The proportion of accessible voters who would consider voting for the NDP is sliding, reveals the most recent nightly tracking poll conducted by Nanos Research for CTV and The Globe and Mail, which also shows the three main parties are still within the margin of error.

Voters were asked a series of questions about whether they would consider or not consider voting for each of the federal parties, to determine each party’s proportion of accessible voters.

The proportion of accessible voters for the NDP fell to 44.9 per cent Sunday evening, compared to 51.3 per cent a week ago. The Liberals now have the highest level of accessible voters at 48.9 per cent, while 39.1 per cent of voters said they would consider voting for the Conservatives.

The poll also found 25.8 per cent of Canadians would consider voting Green and 26.8 per cent of Quebecers would consider voting for the Bloc Quebecois.

When asked to rank their top two current local voting preferences if a federal election were held today, the polling found that none of the major federal parties have been able to break away from the pack.

The latest results show:

  • the Conservatives with 31.0 per cent support
  • the Liberals with 29.4 per cent
  • the NDP with 29.1 per cent

The Greens have 5.5 per cent support nationally, while the Bloc has 3.8 per cent support (Quebec only).

The margin of error for 1,054 decided voters is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Top choice for preferred PM

The latest nightly tracking also shows Conservative Leader Stephen Harper is marginally ahead when it comes to preferred choice for prime minister, with NDP Leader Tom Mulcair and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau tied and sitting slightly back.

Voters were asked: "Of the current federal political party leaders, please rank your top two current local preferences for prime minister?"

  • 29.3 per cent chose Harper
  • 25.9 per cent selected Mulcair
  • 25.3 per cent chose Trudeau

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May garnered 6.1 per cent support, with Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe rounding out the top five at 1.9 per cent.

Another 11.5 per cent of respondents said they were unsure who they preferred as prime minister.

Poll Methodology

A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign, using live agents.

The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Full poll at Nanos Research

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