Nanos tracking: Conservatives, Liberals gripped in tie for first, NDP trails
Published Thursday, October 1, 2015 6:56AM EDT
Last Updated Thursday, October 1, 2015 2:00PM EDT
The latest nightly tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and The Globe and Mail suggests a two-party race has emerged at this point in the federal election. The Liberals and Conservatives appear locked in a tie with the NDP trailing several points behind.
Voters were asked: "If a federal election were held today, please rank your top two current local voting preferences?" The latest numbers show:
- 32.8 per cent would choose the Conservatives
- 31.7 per cent the Liberals
- 26.1 per cent would choose the NDP
The Green Party holds 4.1 per cent support nationally.
The margin of error among the 1,075 decided voters is considered ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Voters were then asked a series of questions about whether they would consider or not consider voting for each of the federal parties, to determine each party’s proportion of accessible voters.
That polling found 49.6 per cent of Canadians would consider voting Liberal, 45.1 per cent would consider voting NDP, 41.8 per cent would consider voting Conservative, 25.2 per cent would consider voting Green and 29.1 per cent of Quebecers would consider voting for the BQ.
Harper ahead as preferred PM
Conservative Leader Stephen Harper is in the lead on the preferred prime minister measure, followed by Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau in second and NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair in third, according to the latest nightly tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and The Globe and Mail.
Survey respondents were asked: "Of the current federal political party leaders, could you please rank your top two current local preferences for prime minister?"
According to the latest numbers released Thursday afternoon:
- 32.9 per cent said they preferred Harper
- 27.3 per cent preferred Trudeau
- 24.1 per cent preferred Mulcair
Among the other federal party leaders, 4.4 per cent said they preferred Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, while 1.7 preferred Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe.
When asked to pick their second choice for preferred prime minister:
- 34 per cent of those who picked Harper first said they had no second choice
- 52 per cent of those who picked Trudeau first said Mulcair would be their second choice
- 60 per cent of those who picked Mulcair first said Trudeau would be their second choice
A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample composed of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for 1,200 decided voters is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Full results at Nanos Research
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