Nanos poll: Three-way contest for major parties continues
The Nanos poll numbers from Sept 16.
Published Wednesday, September 16, 2015 6:45AM EDT
Last Updated Wednesday, September 16, 2015 2:07PM EDT
The tight electoral race continues with only 2.6 percentage points separating the three main federal parties, according to the latest polling by Nanos Research for CTV and The Globe and Mail.
The latest numbers for the three leading parties:
- Conservatives: 29.0 per cent
- Liberals: 30.1 per cent
- NDP: 31.6 per cent
Voters were asked: "If a federal election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences?"
The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprising 1,200 interviews. Each evening, 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The tracking is updated each day by adding information from a new day and dropping the oldest day.
The margin of error for a survey of 1,078 decided voters is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Based on the tracking, the proportion of undecided voters stands at 9.7 per cent which is lower than usual for the distance to election day. One month ago, undecided voters stood at 16.7 per cent.
- The Conservatives are leading in the Prairie provinces with 49.6 per cent.
- In Quebec and British Columbia, the NDP register as the most popular party. In British Columbia, 36.2 per cent of respondents picked the New Democrats as their top choice. In Quebec, 42.2 per cent did.
- The Liberals have the highest support in Atlantic Canada, with 46.9 per cent. They are also now leading in Ontario, with 36.2 per cent.
- Regional margins of error: British Columbia: 7.7 per cent, Prairies: 6.7 per cent, Ontario: 5.5 per cent, Quebec: 6.0 per cent, Atlantic: 9.7 per cent.
When asked to rank their second choice:
- Of those who ranked the Liberals first, 52 per cent picked the NDP second, 22 per cent would pick the Conservatives as their second choice, and 14 per cent said they have no second choice.
- Of those who chose the NDP as their top pick, 54 per cent said the Liberals would be their second choice, 16 per cent would pick the Green Party as their second choice, 9 per cent would pick the Conservatives as their second choice, and 15 per cent said they have no second choice.
- Among those who favoured the Conservatives, 37 per cent said they have no second choice, 38 per cent said they would pick Liberals as their second choice, and 15 per cent said they would pick the NDP as their second choice.
Preferred prime minister
Asked which of the federal party leaders they would prefer as prime minister, 31 per cent of Canadians said Stephen Harper was their first preference, followed by Tom Mulcair at 29 per cent, Justin Trudeau at 25 per cent, and Elizabeth May at six per cent. Nine per cent were undecided.
A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Full poll at Nanos research
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