A two-way race between the Liberals and Conservatives continues, with the NDP nine points behind the front-runners, according to the latest tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail.

The latest numbers, which were released on Oct. 7, show:

  • The Liberals at 34.3 per cent support nationally
  • The Conservatives at 32.1 per cent
  • The NDP at 23.0
  • The Greens at 4.6

Respondents were asked "If a federal election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences?"

Nanos Nightly tracking released Oct. 7

National Nightly Tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail, released Oct. 7.

Of those who picked the Liberals as their top choice, 45 per cent said the NDP were their second choice, while 52 per cent of those who picked the NDP first said they would choose the Liberals second.

Of those who named the Conservatives as their top choice, 42 per cent said they had no second choice.

And when asked a series of independent questions on whether they would consider or not consider voting for each of the federal parties:

  • 49.7 per cent said they would consider voting Liberal
  • 41.6 per cent said they wold consider voting Conservative
  • 40.3 per cent said they would consider voting NDP
  • 23.5 per cent said they would consider voting Green
  • In Quebec, 27.1 per cent said they would consider voting Bloc Quebecois

Poll methodology

A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample composed of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,083 decided voters is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Harper and Trudeau top choices for PM, Mulcair noticeably trails

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau are the top choices for prime minister, according to the latest nightly tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and The Globe and Mail.

When asked who they would prefer as prime minister, 33.2 per cent of Canadians said they preferred Harper.

This was followed by:

  • 30.4 per cent who preferred Trudeau;
  • 18.7 per cent who preferred NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair;
  • 5.8 per cent who preferred Green Leader Elizabeth May;
  • 1.8 per cent who preferred Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe;
  • 10.1 per cent who were unsure.

Party Power Index

On the Nanos Party Power Index, which is a composite of several measures including ballot preferences, PM preferences and leader impressions, the Liberals scored 54.6 points out of a possible 100, the Conservatives scored 50.9 points and the NDP scored 48.6 points.

The Green Party scored 31.0 points and the Bloc Quebecois scored 30.2 points (Quebec only).

The index measures each party's brand strength based on a set of questions about the federal parties and their leadership.

The views of 1,200 respondents are compiled into a diffusion brand index for each party, in which a 0 means the party has no brand strength and a 100 means the party has maximum brand strength.

Survey methodology

A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample composed of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Full poll at Nanos Research

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