A new poll suggests that the Liberals might want to tread carefully into election waters as they have lost some support over the summer, particularly in Quebec.

A Strategic Counsel poll taken in early September for CTV and the Globe and Mail has the Liberals down five points with 30 per cent support nationally, compared to the Conservatives' 35 per cent.

Earlier polls this summer had the two parties neck-and-neck, with the Liberals up as much as five per cent over the Tories in May.

Here are the national results (difference between 2008 federal election results in brackets):

  • Conservatives: 35 per cent (-3)
  • Liberals: 30 per cent (+4)
  • NDP: 14 per cent (-4)
  • Green Party: 9 per cent (+2)
  • Bloc Quebecois: 12 per cent (+2)

Strategic Counsel pollster Peter Donolo said it is clear that Canadians feel Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has not yet made a strong enough argument for a change in government.

"The poll results illustrate why the Liberals are in a Catch-22 position," he told the Globe and Mail.

"As long as they continue having to prop up the government, they're unable to differentiate themselves and make the case for change. Therefore, they have no momentum in the polls. But the only way to break out of this may be to start voting against the government and trigger an election in a situation where they're behind."

The Liberals' drop in support in Quebec comes mostly to the benefit of the Bloc Quebecois. The Grits dropped seven points to 23 per cent support, while the Bloc jumped up five points to 49 per cent.

The Tories trail at 16 per cent.

Ontario remains a dead heat, with the Conservatives holding 41 per cent support and the Liberals, 39. The NDP lag far behind at 11 per cent.

The West continues to be dominated by the Conservatives, who held 43 per cent support. The Grits and NDP are in a battle for second place at 24 per cent and 22 per cent support, respectively.

Economy and leadership on voters' minds

Should the opposition parties bring down the Conservative government and force yet another vote this fall, the election will be about two issues: the economy and leadership, political science professor David Docherty says.

Last week, Ignatieff said he can no longer support the Stephen Harper government and seemed poised to force a non-confidence vote in Parliament when MPs get back to work later this month.

The opposition parties had previously threatened to throw Harper out of office if their demands over employment insurance reform were not met.

And while EI reform is still an important issue, says Docherty, a political science professor at Ontario's Wilfred Laurier University, it's not what is going to appeal most to voters.

"If there is an election issue there will be two things. Obviously the economy, and where we're going as the economy improves, and what kind of deficit we may or may not have as a result and how we pay for that," Docherty said Monday during an interview with CTV News Channel.

"And the second issue will be leadership. It will be very much Mr. Ignatieff, Mr. Harper, who is the better leader? The Liberals are much more comfortable now with Mr. Ignatieff than they were with Stephane Dion. So they're not afraid to make leadership a bit of an issue in this campaign."

Another sign that the Liberal Party is getting election-ready is the fact it has released three television ads in which it touts its readiness to lead the country under Ignatieff's guidance.

"We need a new way of thinking, a government that thinks big," Ignatieff says in an English-language ad, with a wooded area behind him. "I know Canada can take on the world and win."

The slogan for that ad is, "We can do better."

But "election-weary" Canadians, who would be headed to their fourth election in five years, may not want to hear it.

"We had less than 60 per cent voter turnout last election," Docherty says. "A lot of Canadians might decide to stay home because it looks like nothing is going to change and the result will be about the same. And so if that's the case, voter turnout could diminish even more."

Even if turnout is low, Docherty predicts that key battlegrounds will be lower mainland British Columbia, particularly Vancouver, southern Ontario and Quebec.

In last year's election, the Conservatives gained nine seats out of the 45 "Battleground 2008" ridings in B.C., Ontario and Quebec, tracked for CTV and The Globe and Mail by The Strategic Counsel.

They gained five battleground seats in Ontario and four in B.C., but none in Quebec.

"We'll probably have higher turnout in the Atlantic provinces where little change takes place," Docherty said, "and lower turnout in southern Ontario where the real battles will take place and which really could make or break Stephen Harper, could take him from a minority to a majority, or swing the balance to Mr. Ignatieff."

Sample size and margin of error:

  • Canada: 1,000 -- 3.1 per cent
  • Quebec: 243 -- 6.3 per cent
  • Ontario: 383 -- 5.0 per cent
  • West: 300 - 5.7 per cent

Technical notes

  • Interviews were conducted between Sept. 3rd and 6th, 2009.
  • Findings are based on a telephone survey of 1,000 voting-age Canadians -- 500 men and 500 women, all living in Canada.
  • The sampling model relies on stratification of the population by 10 regions (Atlantic Canada, Montreal CMA, the rest of Quebec, Toronto CMA, the rest of Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, Vancouver CMA and the rest of British Columbia) and by four community sizes (1,000,000 inhabitants or more, 100,000 to 1,000,000 inhabitants, 5,000 to 100,000 inhabitants, and under 5,000 inhabitants).