The latest nightly tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and The Globe and Mail completed on the holiday weekend has the Liberals in the lead at 35.7 per cent.
Tracking released on Oct. 12 shows:
• The Liberals at 35.7 per cent support nationally
• The Conservatives at 28.9 per cent support nationally
• The NDP at 24.3 per cent support nationally
• The Greens at 4.8 per cent support nationally
Respondents were asked: "If a federal election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences?"
Nightly tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail, released Oct. 12.
The latest regional numbers:
• Atlantic Canada - Liberals (52.9 per cent), NDP (21.3 per cent), Conservatives (16.5 per cent), Greens (9.3), based on 110 decided individuals. A sample of 110 respondents is accurate ±9.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
• Quebec – NDP (32.7 per cent), Liberals (28.7 per cent), Bloc Quebecois (23.2 per cent), Conservatives (14.0 per cent), Greens (0.8), based on 268 decided individuals. A sample of 268 respondents is accurate ±6.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
• Ontario – Liberals (45.2 per cent), Conservatives (32.7 per cent), NDP (18.2 per cent), Greens (3.3 per cent), based on 325 decided individuals. A sample of 325 respondents is accurate ±5.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
• Prairies – Conservatives (47.7 per cent), Liberals (26.5 per cent), NDP (24.2 per cent), Greens (1.7 per cent), based on 222 decided individuals. A sample of 222 respondents is ±6.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
• British Columbia – Conservatives (29.1 per cent), Liberals (28.9 per cent), NDP (25.0 per cent), Greens (14.9 per cent), based on 169 decided individuals. A sample of 169 respondents is accurate ±7.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Accessible Vote
When asked a series of independent questions as to whether they would vote for each federal party:
- 52.7 per cent of Canadians would consider voting for the Liberals
- 42.3 per cent of Canadians would consider voting for the NDP
- 38.1 per cent of Canadians would consider voting for the Conservatives
- 26.3 per cent of Canadians would consider voting for the Greens
- 34.3 per cent of Quebecers would consider voting for the Bloc Quebecois
Poll methodology
A national dual frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample composed of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1094 decided voters is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Full poll at Nanos Research.
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